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DFB-Pokal

Referee: F Zwayer

RB Leipzig

T S S T S

4–2

Full-time

St Pauli

U S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — DFB-Pokal · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

5,0

Scored

4,0

3,0

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+3,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

47% Possession 53%

9 Shots 17

7 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 11. · St Pauli 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	+7	3
2	Hamburg	1	1	0	0	+6	3
3	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+5	3
4	Karlsruhe	1	1	0	0	+5	3
5	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+4	3
10	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Mainz	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Werder Bremen	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Dresden	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Greuther Furth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Schalke 04	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	St Pauli	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Holstein Kiel	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Kaiserslautern	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Kickers Offenbach	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Regensburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Wurzburger Kickers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Hoffenheim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	FC Saarbrücken	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Nurnberg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Sandhausen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Alemannia Aachen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	FC Ingolstadt 04	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Greifswalder FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	TuS Koblenz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Erzgebirge Aue	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	VfR Aalen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Braunschweig	1	0	0	1	-3	0
53	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-3	0
54	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
55	Phönix Lübeck	1	0	0	1	-3	0
56	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-4	0
57	Osnabruck	1	0	0	1	-4	0
58	Ulm	1	0	0	1	-4	0
59	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-4	0
60	FC 08 Villingen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
61	Preußen Münster	1	0	0	1	-5	0
62	Sportfreunde Lotte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
63	SV Meppen	1	0	0	1	-6	0
64	Borussia Hildesheim	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Dresden	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Kickers Offenbach	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Regensburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Wurzburger Kickers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	FC Saarbrücken	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Sandhausen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
8	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
9	Alemannia Aachen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	FC Ingolstadt 04	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Greifswalder FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	TuS Koblenz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Erzgebirge Aue	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	VfR Aalen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Braunschweig	1	0	0	1	-3	0
21	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-3	0
22	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
23	Phönix Lübeck	1	0	0	1	-3	0
24	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-4	0
25	Osnabruck	1	0	0	1	-4	0
26	Ulm	1	0	0	1	-4	0
27	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-4	0
28	FC 08 Villingen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
29	Preußen Münster	1	0	0	1	-5	0
30	Sportfreunde Lotte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
31	SV Meppen	1	0	0	1	-6	0
32	Borussia Hildesheim	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	+7	3
2	Hamburg	1	1	0	0	+6	3
3	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+5	3
4	Karlsruhe	1	1	0	0	+5	3
5	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+4	3
10	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Mainz	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Werder Bremen	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Greuther Furth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Schalke 04	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	St Pauli	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Holstein Kiel	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Kaiserslautern	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Hoffenheim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Nurnberg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.