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Bundesliga
Referee: D Siebert
Mainz
S U U T S
1–0
Full-time
RB Leipzig
T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz RB Leipzig
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
2,8
2,8
Scored
1,5
1,3
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

28% Possession 72%
7 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 6
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 11
2 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 8
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

23. Jan -21 Mainz – RB Leipzig 3–2 20. Sep -20 RB Leipzig – Mainz 3–1 24. May -20 Mainz – RB Leipzig 0–5 2. Nov -19 RB Leipzig – Mainz 8–0 3. May -19 Mainz – RB Leipzig 3–3

Match report

Mainz RB Leipzig
7′
🟨 Kevin Kampl
1–0 M. Niakhate ⚽
12′
Half-time 1–0
Paul Nebel 🟨
48′
64′
🔁 D. Szoboszlai
↦ C. Nkunku
64′
🔁 M. Sabitzer
↦ T. Adams
64′
🔁 Hwang Hee-Chan
↦ A. Haïdara
80′
🟨 Marcel Sabitzer
82′
🔁 B. Brobbey
↦ N. Mukiele
S. Fürstner 🔁
↦ N. Tauer
86′
R. Rösch 🔁
↦ P. Nebel
90′
L. Kilian 🔁
↦ Lee Jae-Sung
91′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Mainz

3-4-1-2
27 R. Zentner G
16 S. Bell D
30 S. Widmer M
42 A. Hack D
3 Aarón Martín M
19 M. Niakhate D
7 Lee Jae-Sung F
8 L. Barreiro M
25 N. Tauer M
26 P. Nebel F
29 J. Burkardt F
Bench (7)
35 S. Fürstner
15 L. Kilian
43 R. Rösch
37 T. Rupil
36 K. Mizuta
1 F. Dahmen
38 B. Bobzien

Coach: B. Svensson

RB Leipzig

4-2-3-1
1 P. Gulácsi G
4 W. Orban D
3 Angeliño D
22 N. Mukiele D
2 M. Simakan D
10 E. Forsberg M
44 K. Kampl M
18 C. Nkunku M
14 T. Adams M
8 A. Haïdara M
33 André Silva F
Bench (9)
17 D. Szoboszlai
7 M. Sabitzer
11 Hwang Hee-Chan
21 B. Brobbey
27 K. Laimer
16 L. Klostermann
32 J. Gvardiol
37 S. Raebiger
31 Josep Martínez

Coach: J. Marsch

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
8,07
🔒
U
5,44
🔒
B
1,35
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
1,54
🔒
U2,5 ✓
2,50
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Siebert · 158 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.