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Bundesliga

Referee: F Willenborg

Dortmund

S U S T T

4–3

Full-time

Augsburg

U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Augsburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

4,0

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,3

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,0

This season — Bundesliga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 40%

53%

27%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

3,1

2,9

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

2,94 xG 1,70

68% Possession 32%

27 Shots 14

10 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 7. · Augsburg 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	10	5	1	+36	-0.1	35
2	Ein Frankfurt	16	9	3	4	+11	-0.7	30
3	Union Berlin	16	9	3	4	+6	+1.9	30
4	Freiburg	16	9	3	4	+2	-2.0	30
5	RB Leipzig	16	8	5	3	+9	+0.1	29
6	Wolfsburg	16	7	5	4	+10	+2.0	26
7	Dortmund	15	8	1	6	+4	–	25
8	M'gladbach	15	6	4	5	+4	–	22
9	Werder Bremen	16	6	3	7	-8	-2.9	21
10	FC Koln	16	5	5	6	-2	+2.9	20
11	Mainz	16	5	5	6	-5	-0.4	20
12	Leverkusen	15	5	3	7	-1	–	18
13	Hoffenheim	16	5	3	8	-2	-1.9	18
14	Bochum	16	5	1	10	-20	+0.6	16
15	Augsburg	15	4	3	8	-8	–	15
16	Stuttgart	16	3	6	7	-9	+0.4	15
17	Hertha	16	3	5	8	-5	-0.6	14
18	Schalke 04	16	2	3	11	-22	+0.7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	8	6	2	0	+14	+0.1	20
2	Union Berlin	8	6	2	0	+10	+1.9	20
3	M'gladbach	8	6	0	2	+10	–	18
4	Bayern Munich	7	5	2	0	+20	–	17
5	Dortmund	7	5	1	1	+10	–	16
6	Ein Frankfurt	9	5	1	3	+8	-0.7	16
7	Freiburg	7	5	1	1	+7	–	16
8	Wolfsburg	8	4	3	1	+11	+2.0	15
9	FC Koln	8	4	2	2	+8	+2.9	14
10	Bochum	8	4	1	3	-3	+0.6	13
11	Stuttgart	9	3	3	3	+1	+0.4	12
12	Leverkusen	8	3	2	3	+6	–	11
13	Werder Bremen	8	3	1	4	+1	–	10
14	Hertha	8	2	4	2	+1	–	10
15	Hoffenheim	8	3	1	4	-1	–	10
16	Mainz	7	1	4	2	-1	–	7
17	Schalke 04	8	2	1	5	-10	–	7
18	Augsburg	8	1	2	5	-8	–	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	5	3	1	+16	-0.1	18
2	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	2	1	+3	–	14
3	Freiburg	9	4	2	3	-5	-2.0	14
4	Mainz	9	4	1	4	-4	-0.4	13
5	Wolfsburg	8	3	2	3	-1	–	11
6	Werder Bremen	8	3	2	3	-9	-2.9	11
7	Augsburg	7	3	1	3	+0	–	10
8	Union Berlin	8	3	1	4	-4	–	10
9	RB Leipzig	8	2	3	3	-5	–	9
10	Dortmund	8	3	0	5	-6	–	9
11	Hoffenheim	8	2	2	4	-1	-1.9	8
12	Leverkusen	7	2	1	4	-7	–	7
13	FC Koln	8	1	3	4	-10	–	6
14	M'gladbach	7	0	4	3	-6	–	4
15	Hertha	8	1	1	6	-6	-0.6	4
16	Stuttgart	7	0	3	4	-10	–	3
17	Bochum	8	1	0	7	-17	–	3
18	Schalke 04	8	0	2	6	-12	+0.7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.