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League Cup

Referee: S Hooper

Man City

S U S S S

2–0

Full-time

Chelsea

U S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

18 Shots 15

9 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 6

3 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milton Keynes Dons	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Blackburn	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Lincoln	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Sheffield Weds	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Stevenage	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	6
7	Nott'm Forest	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Bristol City	3	2	0	1	+3	6
9	Burnley	2	2	0	0	+3	6
10	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+2	6
11	Derby	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	Crawley Town	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	Newport County	3	2	0	1	-1	6
14	Gillingham	3	1	2	0	+2	5
15	Charlton	3	1	2	0	+1	5
16	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+7	4
17	Bournemouth	2	1	1	0	+3	4
18	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
19	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+3	4
20	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
21	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+2	4
22	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+1	4
23	Stockport County	2	1	1	0	+1	4
24	Morecambe	3	1	1	1	-1	4
25	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
26	Preston	2	1	0	1	+2	3
27	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+2	3
28	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Grimsby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Leeds	2	1	0	1	+1	3
31	Peterborough	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
33	Bradford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Fleetwood Town	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Wycombe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
39	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Rochdale	2	1	0	1	-1	3
41	Forest Green	2	1	0	1	-1	3
42	Colchester	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	Everton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
44	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
45	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
46	Barrow	2	0	2	0	+0	2
47	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Tranmere	2	0	1	1	-1	1
55	Oxford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
56	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Watford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
82	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
83	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
86	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0
87	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0
88	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Milton Keynes Dons	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Crawley Town	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Stevenage	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Rochdale	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
14	Grimsby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
17	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Bradford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
20	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
21	Fleetwood Town	2	1	0	1	+0	3
22	Forest Green	2	1	0	1	-1	3
23	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
24	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
25	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Charlton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Oxford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
37	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Watford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
55	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
56	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
57	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lincoln	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Bristol City	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+7	4
5	Gillingham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Preston	2	1	0	1	+2	3
13	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+2	3
14	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Peterborough	2	1	0	1	+1	3
18	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Colchester	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	-1	3
26	Morecambe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
27	Newport County	2	1	0	1	-2	3
28	Everton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
29	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Tottenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Rochdale	1	0	0	1	-3	0
55	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
56	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0
57	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.