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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Liverpool

S T S S U

3–1

Full-time

Southampton

S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 13/14 matches

Win Ø 30%

38%

21%

Points per game

1,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

62%

50%

Both score Ø 60%

62%

57%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

1,9

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

60% Possession 40%

15 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 0

0 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 8. · Southampton 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	13	11	1	1	+20	34
2	Man City	14	10	2	2	+26	32
3	Newcastle	14	7	6	1	+17	27
4	Tottenham	14	8	2	4	+9	26
5	Man United	13	7	2	4	-1	23
6	Brighton	13	6	3	4	+5	21
7	Chelsea	13	6	3	4	+1	21
8	Liverpool	13	5	4	4	+9	19
9	Fulham	14	5	4	5	-1	19
10	Brentford	15	4	7	4	-2	19
11	Crystal Palace	13	5	4	4	-2	19
12	Leeds	13	4	3	6	-3	15
13	Aston Villa	14	4	3	7	-7	15
14	Leicester	14	4	2	8	-2	14
15	West Ham	14	4	2	8	-3	14
16	Everton	14	3	5	6	-3	14
17	Bournemouth	14	3	4	7	-17	13
18	Southampton	14	3	3	8	-12	12
19	Wolves	14	2	4	8	-14	10
20	Nott'm Forest	14	2	4	8	-20	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	7	0	1	+21	21
2	Arsenal	6	6	0	0	+12	18
3	Newcastle	7	4	3	0	+11	15
4	Tottenham	7	5	0	2	+9	15
5	Liverpool	7	4	2	1	+11	14
6	Aston Villa	7	4	1	2	+5	13
7	Man United	6	4	1	1	+5	13
8	Crystal Palace	7	4	1	2	+2	13
9	Brentford	7	3	3	1	+6	12
10	Fulham	7	3	3	1	+2	12
11	Brighton	6	3	2	1	+6	11
12	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+4	11
13	Leeds	7	3	2	2	+3	11
14	West Ham	7	3	1	3	+1	10
15	Leicester	7	2	2	3	+3	8
16	Everton	7	2	2	3	+0	8
17	Nott'm Forest	7	2	2	3	-2	8
18	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-2	8
19	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-6	8
20	Southampton	7	1	3	3	-4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+8	16
2	Newcastle	7	3	3	1	+6	12
3	Man City	6	3	2	1	+5	11
4	Tottenham	7	3	2	2	+0	11
5	Brighton	7	3	1	3	-1	10
6	Chelsea	7	3	1	3	-3	10
7	Man United	7	3	1	3	-6	10
8	Fulham	7	2	1	4	-3	7
9	Brentford	8	1	4	3	-8	7
10	Everton	7	1	3	3	-3	6
11	Crystal Palace	6	1	3	2	-4	6
12	Leicester	7	2	0	5	-5	6
13	Southampton	7	2	0	5	-8	6
14	Liverpool	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Bournemouth	7	1	2	4	-15	5
16	West Ham	7	1	1	5	-4	4
17	Leeds	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Wolves	7	0	2	5	-8	2
19	Aston Villa	7	0	2	5	-12	2
20	Nott'm Forest	7	0	2	5	-18	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.