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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Man City

U S S S S

1–2

Full-time

Brentford

U T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 13/14 matches

Win Ø 49%

77%

21%

Points per game

2,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

69%

57%

Both score Ø 52%

46%

57%

Average goals

3,9

3,2

Scored

3,0

1,5

Conceded

0,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,1

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

75% Possession 25%

29 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 8

14 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 2. · Brentford 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	13	11	1	1	+20	34
2	Man City	13	10	2	1	+27	32
3	Newcastle	14	7	6	1	+17	27
4	Tottenham	14	8	2	4	+9	26
5	Man United	13	7	2	4	-1	23
6	Brighton	13	6	3	4	+5	21
7	Chelsea	13	6	3	4	+1	21
8	Liverpool	13	5	4	4	+9	19
9	Fulham	14	5	4	5	-1	19
10	Crystal Palace	13	5	4	4	-2	19
11	Brentford	14	3	7	4	-3	16
12	Leeds	13	4	3	6	-3	15
13	Aston Villa	14	4	3	7	-7	15
14	Leicester	14	4	2	8	-2	14
15	West Ham	14	4	2	8	-3	14
16	Everton	14	3	5	6	-3	14
17	Bournemouth	14	3	4	7	-17	13
18	Southampton	14	3	3	8	-12	12
19	Wolves	14	2	4	8	-14	10
20	Nott'm Forest	14	2	4	8	-20	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	7	0	0	+22	21
2	Arsenal	6	6	0	0	+12	18
3	Newcastle	7	4	3	0	+11	15
4	Tottenham	7	5	0	2	+9	15
5	Liverpool	7	4	2	1	+11	14
6	Aston Villa	7	4	1	2	+5	13
7	Man United	6	4	1	1	+5	13
8	Crystal Palace	7	4	1	2	+2	13
9	Brentford	7	3	3	1	+6	12
10	Fulham	7	3	3	1	+2	12
11	Brighton	6	3	2	1	+6	11
12	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+4	11
13	Leeds	7	3	2	2	+3	11
14	West Ham	7	3	1	3	+1	10
15	Leicester	7	2	2	3	+3	8
16	Everton	7	2	2	3	+0	8
17	Nott'm Forest	7	2	2	3	-2	8
18	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-2	8
19	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-6	8
20	Southampton	7	1	3	3	-4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+8	16
2	Newcastle	7	3	3	1	+6	12
3	Man City	6	3	2	1	+5	11
4	Tottenham	7	3	2	2	+0	11
5	Brighton	7	3	1	3	-1	10
6	Chelsea	7	3	1	3	-3	10
7	Man United	7	3	1	3	-6	10
8	Fulham	7	2	1	4	-3	7
9	Everton	7	1	3	3	-3	6
10	Crystal Palace	6	1	3	2	-4	6
11	Leicester	7	2	0	5	-5	6
12	Southampton	7	2	0	5	-8	6
13	Liverpool	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Bournemouth	7	1	2	4	-15	5
15	West Ham	7	1	1	5	-4	4
16	Leeds	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Brentford	7	0	4	3	-9	4
18	Wolves	7	0	2	5	-8	2
19	Aston Villa	7	0	2	5	-12	2
20	Nott'm Forest	7	0	2	5	-18	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.