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Bundesliga

Referee: M Fritz

Dortmund

S U S S U

1–4

Full-time

RB Leipzig

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

2,2

2,8

Conceded

0,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+2,2

This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 58%

67%

48%

Points per game

2,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

74%

52%

Both score Ø 67%

74%

59%

Average goals

3,9

3,2

Scored

2,5

2,1

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

64% Possession 36%

10 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 2. · RB Leipzig 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	28	21	3	4	+56	66
2	Dortmund	27	18	3	6	+29	57
3	Leverkusen	28	15	6	7	+26	51
4	RB Leipzig	27	13	6	8	+27	45
5	Freiburg	28	12	9	7	+11	45
6	Hoffenheim	28	13	5	10	+8	44
7	Union Berlin	28	11	8	9	-4	41
8	FC Koln	28	10	10	8	-3	40
9	Ein Frankfurt	28	10	9	9	+1	39
10	Mainz	26	11	4	11	+9	37
11	Bochum	28	10	5	13	-10	35
12	M'gladbach	27	9	6	12	-13	33
13	Wolfsburg	27	9	4	14	-13	31
14	Stuttgart	28	6	9	13	-15	27
15	Augsburg	26	6	8	12	-15	26
16	Bielefeld	28	5	11	12	-16	26
17	Hertha	28	7	5	16	-32	26
18	Greuther Furth	28	3	7	18	-46	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	11	1	2	+30	34
2	Dortmund	13	11	0	2	+22	33
3	Mainz	14	9	3	2	+20	30
4	RB Leipzig	14	9	2	3	+20	29
5	Union Berlin	14	8	4	2	+5	28
6	Hoffenheim	14	8	3	3	+13	27
7	Leverkusen	14	8	2	4	+14	26
8	Freiburg	14	7	4	3	+7	25
9	FC Koln	14	7	4	3	+4	25
10	Bochum	14	7	3	4	+5	24
11	M'gladbach	13	6	3	4	+2	21
12	Stuttgart	14	5	3	6	-3	18
13	Hertha	14	5	3	6	-7	18
14	Ein Frankfurt	14	4	5	5	-1	17
15	Wolfsburg	14	5	2	7	-5	17
16	Augsburg	12	4	4	4	-2	16
17	Bielefeld	14	2	8	4	-5	14
18	Greuther Furth	14	3	5	6	-11	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	10	2	2	+26	32
2	Leverkusen	14	7	4	3	+12	25
3	Dortmund	14	7	3	4	+7	24
4	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	4	4	+2	22
5	Freiburg	14	5	5	4	+4	20
6	Hoffenheim	14	5	2	7	-5	17
7	RB Leipzig	13	4	4	5	+7	16
8	FC Koln	14	3	6	5	-7	15
9	Wolfsburg	13	4	2	7	-8	14
10	Union Berlin	14	3	4	7	-9	13
11	Bielefeld	14	3	3	8	-11	12
12	M'gladbach	14	3	3	8	-15	12
13	Bochum	14	3	2	9	-15	11
14	Augsburg	14	2	4	8	-13	10
15	Stuttgart	14	1	6	7	-12	9
16	Hertha	14	2	2	10	-25	8
17	Mainz	12	2	1	9	-11	7
18	Greuther Furth	14	0	2	12	-35	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.