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Bundesliga

Referee: S Stegemann

Mainz

T S U S T

0–1

Full-time

Dortmund

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

4,0

Scored

1,5

2,7

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,3

This season — Bundesliga · 24/25 matches

Win Ø 55%

42%

68%

Points per game

1,4

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

54%

80%

Both score Ø 65%

54%

76%

Average goals

2,7

4,1

Scored

1,5

2,6

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%

10 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 10. · Dortmund 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	26	19	3	4	+49	60
2	Dortmund	25	17	2	6	+28	53
3	Leverkusen	26	13	6	7	+23	45
4	RB Leipzig	26	13	5	8	+27	44
5	Freiburg	26	12	8	6	+14	44
6	Hoffenheim	26	13	5	8	+12	44
7	FC Koln	26	10	9	7	-2	39
8	Union Berlin	26	10	8	8	-1	38
9	Ein Frankfurt	26	10	7	9	+1	37
10	Mainz	24	10	4	10	+6	34
11	Bochum	26	9	5	12	-9	32
12	Wolfsburg	26	9	4	13	-11	31
13	M'gladbach	26	8	6	12	-15	30
14	Augsburg	25	6	8	11	-14	26
15	Bielefeld	26	5	10	11	-12	25
16	Stuttgart	26	5	8	13	-16	23
17	Hertha	26	6	5	15	-34	23
18	Greuther Furth	26	3	5	18	-46	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	13	11	0	2	+22	33
2	Bayern Munich	13	10	1	2	+26	31
3	RB Leipzig	13	9	1	3	+20	28
4	Mainz	12	8	3	1	+17	27
5	Hoffenheim	13	8	3	2	+14	27
6	Freiburg	13	7	4	2	+10	25
7	Union Berlin	13	7	4	2	+4	25
8	Bochum	13	7	3	3	+7	24
9	FC Koln	13	7	3	3	+4	24
10	Leverkusen	13	7	2	4	+13	23
11	M'gladbach	13	6	3	4	+2	21
12	Wolfsburg	13	5	2	6	-3	17
13	Ein Frankfurt	13	4	4	5	-1	16
14	Augsburg	12	4	4	4	-2	16
15	Stuttgart	13	4	3	6	-4	15
16	Hertha	13	4	3	6	-10	15
17	Bielefeld	13	2	7	4	-5	13
18	Greuther Furth	13	3	4	6	-11	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	9	2	2	+23	29
2	Leverkusen	13	6	4	3	+10	22
3	Ein Frankfurt	13	6	3	4	+2	21
4	Dortmund	12	6	2	4	+6	20
5	Freiburg	13	5	4	4	+4	19
6	Hoffenheim	13	5	2	6	-2	17
7	RB Leipzig	13	4	4	5	+7	16
8	FC Koln	13	3	6	4	-6	15
9	Wolfsburg	13	4	2	7	-8	14
10	Union Berlin	13	3	4	6	-5	13
11	Bielefeld	13	3	3	7	-7	12
12	Augsburg	13	2	4	7	-12	10
13	M'gladbach	13	2	3	8	-17	9
14	Stuttgart	13	1	5	7	-12	8
15	Bochum	13	2	2	9	-16	8
16	Hertha	13	2	2	9	-24	8
17	Mainz	12	2	1	9	-11	7
18	Greuther Furth	13	0	1	12	-35	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.