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Bundesliga

Referee: C Dingert

Freiburg

S S U S U

1–4

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,7

2,2

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,0

This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 59%

44%

74%

Points per game

1,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

56%

81%

Both score Ø 63%

59%

67%

Average goals

2,7

4,0

Scored

1,6

3,0

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

39% Possession 61%

8 Shots 21

3 Shots on target 11

3 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 6

0 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 5. · Bayern Munich 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	27	20	3	4	+53	63
2	Dortmund	27	18	3	6	+29	57
3	Leverkusen	27	14	6	7	+25	48
4	RB Leipzig	27	13	6	8	+27	45
5	Freiburg	27	12	9	6	+14	45
6	Hoffenheim	27	13	5	9	+9	44
7	Union Berlin	28	11	8	9	-4	41
8	FC Koln	28	10	10	8	-3	40
9	Ein Frankfurt	27	10	8	9	+1	38
10	Mainz	26	11	4	11	+9	37
11	M'gladbach	27	9	6	12	-13	33
12	Bochum	27	9	5	13	-11	32
13	Wolfsburg	27	9	4	14	-13	31
14	Stuttgart	27	6	8	13	-15	26
15	Augsburg	26	6	8	12	-15	26
16	Hertha	27	7	5	15	-31	26
17	Bielefeld	27	5	10	12	-16	25
18	Greuther Furth	27	3	6	18	-46	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	11	1	2	+30	34
2	Dortmund	13	11	0	2	+22	33
3	Mainz	14	9	3	2	+20	30
4	RB Leipzig	14	9	2	3	+20	29
5	Union Berlin	14	8	4	2	+5	28
6	Hoffenheim	13	8	3	2	+14	27
7	Freiburg	13	7	4	2	+10	25
8	FC Koln	14	7	4	3	+4	25
9	Bochum	14	7	3	4	+5	24
10	Leverkusen	13	7	2	4	+13	23
11	M'gladbach	13	6	3	4	+2	21
12	Stuttgart	14	5	3	6	-3	18
13	Hertha	14	5	3	6	-7	18
14	Wolfsburg	14	5	2	7	-5	17
15	Ein Frankfurt	13	4	4	5	-1	16
16	Augsburg	12	4	4	4	-2	16
17	Greuther Furth	14	3	5	6	-11	14
18	Bielefeld	13	2	7	4	-5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	9	2	2	+23	29
2	Leverkusen	14	7	4	3	+12	25
3	Dortmund	14	7	3	4	+7	24
4	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	4	4	+2	22
5	Freiburg	14	5	5	4	+4	20
6	Hoffenheim	14	5	2	7	-5	17
7	RB Leipzig	13	4	4	5	+7	16
8	FC Koln	14	3	6	5	-7	15
9	Wolfsburg	13	4	2	7	-8	14
10	Union Berlin	14	3	4	7	-9	13
11	Bielefeld	14	3	3	8	-11	12
12	M'gladbach	14	3	3	8	-15	12
13	Augsburg	14	2	4	8	-13	10
14	Stuttgart	13	1	5	7	-12	8
15	Bochum	13	2	2	9	-16	8
16	Hertha	13	2	2	9	-24	8
17	Mainz	12	2	1	9	-11	7
18	Greuther Furth	13	0	1	12	-35	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.