Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Hamburg
Regensburg
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 2–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Holstein Kiel
|
13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 28 |
| 2 |
Bochum
|
14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +11 | 26 |
| 3 |
Hamburg
|
13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | +10 | 26 |
| 4 |
Greuther Furth
|
13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +10 | 24 |
| 5 |
Fortuna Dusseldorf
|
13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 23 |
| 6 |
Heidenheim
|
14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 7 |
Erzgebirge Aue
|
13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +5 | 19 |
| 8 |
Karlsruhe
|
14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | +2 | 19 |
| 9 |
Nurnberg
|
14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 19 |
| 10 |
Osnabruck
|
13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 11 |
Paderborn
|
13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 18 |
| 12 |
Darmstadt
|
14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | +1 | 18 |
| 13 |
Hannover
|
13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | +1 | 17 |
| 14 |
Regensburg
|
13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | +0 | 17 |
| 15 |
Braunschweig
|
13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -16 | 12 |
| 16 |
Sandhausen
|
13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 11 |
| 17 |
St Pauli
|
12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 |
Wurzburger Kickers
|
13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -18 | 4 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Karlsruhe
Hamburg
Hamburg
Sandhausen
Darmstadt
Hamburg
Hamburg
Hannover
Heidenheim
Hamburg
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.