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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Chelsea

T T S T U

1–3

Full-time

Man City

S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,3

0,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,7

This season — Premier League · 16/14 matches

Win Ø 47%

44%

50%

Points per game

1,6

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

63%

21%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

43%

Average goals

3,1

2,4

Scored

1,9

1,5

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

54% Possession 46%

9 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 6. · Man City 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	9	6	1	+17	33
2	Man United	16	10	3	3	+9	33
3	Leicester	17	10	2	5	+10	32
4	Tottenham	16	8	5	3	+14	29
5	Everton	16	9	2	5	+6	29
6	Chelsea	16	7	5	4	+13	26
7	Aston Villa	15	8	2	5	+13	26
8	Man City	14	7	5	2	+9	26
9	Southampton	16	7	5	4	+6	26
10	West Ham	17	7	5	5	+3	26
11	Arsenal	17	7	2	8	+1	23
12	Leeds	17	7	2	8	-3	23
13	Wolves	17	6	4	7	-6	22
14	Crystal Palace	17	6	4	7	-7	22
15	Newcastle	16	5	4	7	-8	19
16	Burnley	15	4	4	7	-11	16
17	Brighton	17	2	8	7	-7	14
18	Fulham	15	2	5	8	-10	11
19	West Brom	17	1	5	11	-28	8
20	Sheffield United	17	0	2	15	-21	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	7	1	0	+13	22
2	Chelsea	8	4	3	1	+10	15
3	Man City	7	4	2	1	+7	14
4	Tottenham	8	4	2	2	+5	14
5	Man United	9	4	2	3	-1	14
6	Southampton	8	4	1	3	+4	13
7	Everton	8	4	1	3	+3	13
8	West Ham	8	3	3	2	+2	12
9	Wolves	8	3	3	2	+1	12
10	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-4	12
11	Leeds	8	3	2	3	+0	11
12	Newcastle	9	3	2	4	-5	11
13	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	+4	10
14	Leicester	8	3	1	4	-1	10
15	Arsenal	8	3	1	4	-2	10
16	Burnley	7	3	1	3	-2	10
17	Fulham	8	1	3	4	-6	6
18	Brighton	9	0	5	4	-5	5
19	West Brom	9	1	2	6	-19	5
20	Sheffield United	8	0	1	7	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Man United	7	6	1	0	+10	19
3	Aston Villa	8	5	1	2	+9	16
4	Everton	8	5	1	2	+3	16
5	Tottenham	8	4	3	1	+9	15
6	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+1	14
7	Arsenal	9	4	1	4	+3	13
8	Southampton	8	3	4	1	+2	13
9	Man City	7	3	3	1	+2	12
10	Leeds	9	4	0	5	-3	12
11	Liverpool	8	2	5	1	+4	11
12	Chelsea	8	3	2	3	+3	11
13	Crystal Palace	8	3	1	4	-3	10
14	Wolves	9	3	1	5	-7	10
15	Brighton	8	2	3	3	-2	9
16	Newcastle	7	2	2	3	-3	8
17	Burnley	8	1	3	4	-9	6
18	Fulham	7	1	2	4	-4	5
19	West Brom	8	0	3	5	-9	3
20	Sheffield United	9	0	1	8	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.