Premier League
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Leeds
Man City
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
|
28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | +35 | +29.1 | 61 |
| 2 |
Man City
|
27 | 17 | 5 | 5 | +31 | +19.0 | 56 |
| 3 |
Aston Villa
|
28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | +8 | -4.2 | 51 |
| 4 |
Man United
|
27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | +11 | +14.0 | 48 |
| 5 |
Liverpool
|
28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | +10 | +12.7 | 48 |
| 6 |
Chelsea
|
27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +17 | +14.9 | 45 |
| 7 |
Brentford
|
28 | 13 | 4 | 11 | +4 | +7.3 | 43 |
| 8 |
Everton
|
28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | -1 | -7.0 | 40 |
| 9 |
Bournemouth
|
28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | -2 | +0.8 | 39 |
| 10 |
Fulham
|
27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | -3 | -6.3 | 37 |
| 11 |
Sunderland
|
28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | -5 | -15.0 | 37 |
| 12 |
Newcastle
|
28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -2 | +6.9 | 36 |
| 13 |
Crystal Palace
|
27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | -3 | +7.9 | 35 |
| 14 |
Brighton
|
27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | +2 | +1.9 | 34 |
| 15 |
Leeds
|
27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | -9 | -1.9 | 31 |
| 16 |
Tottenham
|
27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | -4 | -11.2 | 29 |
| 17 |
Nott'm Forest
|
27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | -14 | -8.6 | 27 |
| 18 |
West Ham
|
28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -20 | -11.7 | 25 |
| 19 |
Burnley
|
28 | 4 | 7 | 17 | -24 | -31.7 | 19 |
| 20 |
Wolves
|
29 | 2 | 7 | 20 | -31 | -17.0 | 13 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
K. Darlow
G
J. Bogle
D
J. Justin
D
J. Rodon
D
P. Struijk
D
G. Gudmundsson
D
A. Stach
M
E. Ampadu
M
I. Gruev
M
B. Aaronson
M
D. Calvert-Lewin
F
Coach: Daniel Farke
G. Donnarumma
G
M. Nunes
D
R. Dias
D
M. Guehi
D
R. Ait-Nouri
D
Rodri
M
R. Cherki
M
B. Silva
M
N. O'Reilly
M
A. Semenyo
F
O. Marmoush
F
Coach: Pep Guardiola
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Aston Villa
Leeds
Birmingham
Leeds
Chelsea
Leeds
Leeds
Nott'm Forest
Leeds
Arsenal
P Bankes · 156 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.