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Eredivisie

Referee: M Vos

Heerenveen

T T S S T

2–1

Full-time

Sparta Rotterdam

S S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Sparta Rotterdam

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,3

3,3

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

2,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 23/24 matches

Win Ø 41%

35%

46%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

70%

50%

Both score Ø 56%

70%

42%

Average goals

3,4

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,27 xG 0,83

45% Possession 55%

16 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 3

9 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 5

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 10. · Sparta Rotterdam 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	24	20	2	2	+41	+25.3	62
2	Feyenoord	24	15	3	6	+22	+21.8	48
3	Nijmegen	24	12	7	5	+19	+7.3	43
4	Ajax	23	10	10	3	+14	+6.9	40
5	AZ Alkmaar	24	11	6	7	+4	+15.8	39
6	Twente	24	9	11	4	+13	+24.2	38
7	Sparta Rotterdam	24	11	4	9	-9	-2.3	37
8	Groningen	23	9	4	10	+1	+7.9	31
9	Utrecht	23	8	6	9	+5	+0.4	30
10	Heerenveen	23	8	6	9	-2	+9.2	30
11	For Sittard	24	8	5	11	-7	-13.8	29
12	Zwolle	24	7	6	11	-16	-17.5	27
13	Go Ahead Eagles	24	5	11	8	-2	-13.8	26
14	Excelsior	24	7	5	12	-15	-15.3	26
15	Volendam	24	6	6	12	-13	-19.8	24
16	NAC Breda	25	5	7	13	-14	-7.8	22
17	Telstar	25	4	9	12	-10	-11.3	21
18	Heracles	24	5	2	17	-31	-17.3	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	9	2	1	+22	+15.1	29
2	Feyenoord	13	9	1	3	+13	+14.9	28
3	Ajax	12	7	3	2	+11	+11.0	24
4	Nijmegen	11	7	2	2	+13	+8.8	23
5	Twente	12	6	4	2	+8	+14.5	22
6	For Sittard	12	6	3	3	+3	-0.4	21
7	AZ Alkmaar	12	5	5	2	+4	+9.0	20
8	Volendam	12	5	4	3	+4	-1.9	19
9	Zwolle	11	6	1	4	+0	-1.2	19
10	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	6	2	+5	+2.2	18
11	Sparta Rotterdam	12	5	3	4	-5	-0.2	18
12	Utrecht	11	5	2	4	+7	+5.0	17
13	Heerenveen	12	4	5	3	+1	+9.3	17
14	Groningen	12	4	3	5	+4	+5.8	15
15	NAC Breda	13	4	3	6	-3	+3.2	15
16	Excelsior	12	4	2	6	-3	-6.6	14
17	Heracles	11	4	1	6	-5	-2.2	13
18	Telstar	13	2	5	6	-3	-0.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	11	0	1	+19	+10.2	33
2	Feyenoord	11	6	2	3	+9	+7.0	20
3	Nijmegen	13	5	5	3	+6	-1.4	20
4	AZ Alkmaar	12	6	1	5	+0	+6.8	19
5	Sparta Rotterdam	12	6	1	5	-4	-2.1	19
6	Twente	12	3	7	2	+5	+9.7	16
7	Ajax	11	3	7	1	+3	-4.1	16
8	Groningen	11	5	1	5	-3	+2.1	16
9	Utrecht	12	3	4	5	-2	-4.6	13
10	Heerenveen	11	4	1	6	-3	-0.0	13
11	Excelsior	12	3	3	6	-12	-8.7	12
12	Telstar	12	2	4	6	-7	-10.4	10
13	Go Ahead Eagles	12	1	5	6	-7	-16.0	8
14	For Sittard	12	2	2	8	-10	-13.3	8
15	Zwolle	13	1	5	7	-16	-16.3	8
16	NAC Breda	12	1	4	7	-11	-11.1	7
17	Volendam	12	1	2	9	-17	-17.9	5
18	Heracles	13	1	1	11	-26	-15.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.