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Championship

Referee: L Doughty

Derby

S T S T T

3–1

Full-time

Blackburn

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Blackburn

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 34%

38%

29%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

50%

41%

Both score Ø 58%

68%

47%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,44 xG 0,90

49% Possession 51%

14 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 12. · Blackburn 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	34	20	8	6	+33	+24.6	68
2	Millwall	33	17	8	8	+7	+6.7	59
3	Ipswich	32	16	9	7	+22	+22.5	57
4	Middlesbrough	31	16	8	7	+10	+11.1	56
5	Wrexham	34	14	12	8	+8	-0.6	54
6	Hull	31	16	6	9	+8	-16.4	54
7	Watford	35	13	12	10	+4	+7.2	51
8	Bristol City	35	14	8	13	+4	-1.9	50
9	Southampton	32	13	10	9	+13	+15.4	49
10	Preston	34	12	13	9	+3	-10.2	49
11	Birmingham	34	13	10	11	+2	+14.8	49
12	Derby	34	13	9	12	+4	-2.0	48
13	Stoke	34	13	8	13	+6	-8.5	47
14	QPR	34	13	8	13	-6	+0.6	47
15	Swansea	34	13	7	14	+0	-3.7	46
16	Sheffield United	34	14	3	17	+0	+12.6	45
17	Norwich	34	12	6	16	+1	-5.5	42
18	Charlton	34	10	11	13	-10	-13.8	41
19	Leicester	34	10	10	14	-7	-13.9	40
20	Portsmouth	33	10	9	14	-9	-0.6	39
21	Blackburn	34	10	8	16	-11	+4.7	38
22	West Brom	34	9	8	17	-17	+4.1	35
23	Oxford	34	6	11	17	-17	-11.2	29
24	Sheffield Weds	34	1	8	25	-48	-36.1	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	16	12	3	1	+22	+14.9	39
2	Ipswich	16	10	5	1	+18	+20.1	35
3	Millwall	17	10	3	4	+7	+8.3	33
4	Middlesbrough	16	9	5	2	+10	+5.8	32
5	Watford	18	9	5	4	+7	+6.6	32
6	Swansea	18	9	5	4	+7	+0.3	32
7	Birmingham	16	8	7	1	+15	+18.1	31
8	Wrexham	18	8	6	4	+5	+8.1	30
9	Hull	17	9	3	5	+3	-7.2	30
10	Southampton	16	8	5	3	+12	+10.9	29
11	Preston	17	7	6	4	+4	-1.4	27
12	Sheffield United	17	8	2	7	+8	+13.3	26
13	QPR	16	8	2	6	+5	+9.0	26
14	Stoke	17	7	4	6	+6	-0.4	25
15	Bristol City	18	7	4	7	+4	-0.5	25
16	Charlton	16	7	4	5	+0	-0.8	25
17	West Brom	17	6	6	5	-3	+9.6	24
18	Portsmouth	16	6	4	6	+2	+5.4	22
19	Leicester	16	6	4	6	+0	-0.7	22
20	Derby	17	5	6	6	-2	-1.3	21
21	Norwich	17	6	1	10	-3	+1.2	19
22	Blackburn	18	4	5	9	-7	+6.1	17
23	Oxford	16	3	6	7	-9	-1.4	15
24	Sheffield Weds	17	0	4	13	-27	-16.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	18	8	5	5	+11	+9.8	29
2	Derby	17	8	3	6	+6	-0.8	27
3	Millwall	16	7	5	4	+0	-1.6	26
4	Bristol City	17	7	4	6	+0	-1.3	25
5	Hull	14	7	3	4	+5	-9.2	24
6	Wrexham	16	6	6	4	+3	-8.6	24
7	Middlesbrough	15	7	3	5	+0	+5.3	24
8	Norwich	17	6	5	6	+4	-6.7	23
9	Ipswich	16	6	4	6	+4	+2.5	22
10	Stoke	17	6	4	7	+0	-8.0	22
11	Preston	17	5	7	5	-1	-8.8	22
12	Blackburn	16	6	3	7	-4	-1.4	21
13	QPR	18	5	6	7	-11	-8.4	21
14	Southampton	16	5	5	6	+1	+4.4	20
15	Watford	17	4	7	6	-3	+0.5	19
16	Sheffield United	17	6	1	10	-8	-0.7	19
17	Leicester	18	4	6	8	-7	-13.2	18
18	Birmingham	18	5	3	10	-13	-3.3	18
19	Portsmouth	17	4	5	8	-11	-6.0	17
20	Charlton	18	3	7	8	-10	-13.0	16
21	Swansea	16	4	2	10	-7	-4.0	14
22	Oxford	18	3	5	10	-8	-9.8	14
23	West Brom	17	3	2	12	-14	-5.5	11
24	Sheffield Weds	17	1	4	12	-21	-19.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.