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La Liga

Referee: I Diaz

Barcelona

S S T T S

4–1

Full-time

Villarreal

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 72%

80%

64%

Points per game

2,4

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

84%

56%

Both score Ø 56%

60%

52%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

2,7

1,9

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,20 xG 1,31

74% Possession 26%

19 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 2

3 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Villarreal 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	25	20	1	4	+42	+32.3	61
2	Real Madrid	25	19	3	3	+33	+29.3	60
3	Villarreal	25	16	3	6	+20	+8.3	51
4	Ath Madrid	25	14	6	5	+19	+11.6	48
5	Betis	25	11	9	5	+10	+8.4	42
6	Celta	25	9	10	6	+7	+5.4	37
7	Espanol	25	10	5	10	-6	-0.7	35
8	Ath Bilbao	26	10	5	11	-6	+8.9	35
9	Osasuna	25	9	6	10	+1	-4.4	33
10	Sociedad	25	8	8	9	-1	-0.2	32
11	Girona	25	7	9	9	-14	-9.8	30
12	Sevilla	25	8	5	12	-7	-14.0	29
13	Getafe	25	8	5	12	-9	-6.3	29
14	Vallecano	25	6	9	10	-9	+0.9	27
15	Alaves	26	7	6	13	-11	-3.2	27
16	Valencia	25	6	8	11	-13	-2.0	26
17	Elche	25	5	10	10	-5	-18.3	25
18	Mallorca	25	6	6	13	-12	-16.6	24
19	Levante	26	5	6	15	-16	-11.8	21
20	Oviedo	24	3	8	13	-23	-17.7	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	12	0	0	+32	+20.4	36
2	Ath Madrid	13	11	1	1	+20	+15.9	34
3	Real Madrid	12	11	0	1	+21	+18.1	33
4	Villarreal	13	10	1	2	+18	+6.6	31
5	Osasuna	12	7	3	2	+8	+3.2	24
6	Betis	12	7	2	3	+10	+6.9	23
7	Ath Bilbao	13	7	2	4	+2	+10.3	23
8	Elche	13	5	6	2	+7	-3.3	21
9	Sociedad	13	6	3	4	+4	+1.7	21
10	Espanol	13	6	2	5	-2	-0.0	20
11	Mallorca	12	5	4	3	+3	-0.4	19
12	Alaves	13	5	4	4	+1	+1.2	19
13	Celta	13	4	5	4	+4	+5.4	17
14	Valencia	12	4	5	3	+2	+8.1	17
15	Vallecano	12	3	7	2	+2	+7.2	16
16	Girona	12	4	4	4	-7	-7.5	16
17	Sevilla	13	4	3	6	-1	-4.1	15
18	Getafe	13	4	3	6	-1	-3.1	15
19	Oviedo	12	2	5	5	-8	-9.4	11
20	Levante	13	2	4	7	-10	-5.8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	13	8	3	2	+12	+11.2	27
2	Barcelona	13	8	1	4	+10	+11.9	25
3	Celta	12	5	5	2	+3	+0.0	20
4	Villarreal	12	6	2	4	+2	+1.7	20
5	Betis	13	4	7	2	+0	+1.5	19
6	Espanol	12	4	3	5	-4	-0.7	15
7	Ath Madrid	12	3	5	4	-1	-4.3	14
8	Sevilla	12	4	2	6	-6	-9.9	14
9	Girona	13	3	5	5	-7	-2.3	14
10	Getafe	12	4	2	6	-8	-3.1	14
11	Ath Bilbao	13	3	3	7	-8	-1.3	12
12	Sociedad	12	2	5	5	-5	-1.9	11
13	Levante	13	3	2	8	-6	-6.1	11
14	Vallecano	13	3	2	8	-11	-6.4	11
15	Osasuna	13	2	3	8	-7	-7.6	9
16	Valencia	13	2	3	8	-15	-10.2	9
17	Alaves	13	2	2	9	-12	-4.3	8
18	Oviedo	12	1	3	8	-15	-8.4	6
19	Mallorca	13	1	2	10	-15	-16.1	5
20	Elche	12	0	4	8	-12	-15.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.