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Ligue 1

Referee: R Lissorgue

Brest

S S U T T

1–0

Full-time

Montpellier

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brest Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

4,0

2,2

Scored

1,8

0,2

Conceded

2,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 28%

42%

13%

Points per game

1,4

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

65%

55%

Both score Ø 52%

61%

42%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

1,6

0,7

Conceded

1,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,10 xG 0,56

64% Possession 36%

16 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brest 9. · Montpellier 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	32	24	6	2	+52	+55.6	78
2	Monaco	32	17	7	8	+24	+39.9	58
3	Marseille	31	18	4	9	+23	+13.1	58
4	Nice	32	16	9	7	+21	+18.3	57
5	Strasbourg	32	16	9	7	+14	-7.7	57
6	Lille	31	16	8	7	+17	+10.2	56
7	Lyon	31	16	6	9	+20	+11.5	54
8	Lens	31	13	6	12	-2	+6.6	45
9	Brest	31	13	5	13	-4	-8.1	44
10	Auxerre	31	11	8	12	+0	-12.7	41
11	Rennes	32	12	2	18	+1	+5.4	38
12	Toulouse	32	10	8	14	+0	+10.4	38
13	Reims	32	8	9	15	-11	-20.3	33
14	Angers	32	9	6	17	-20	-18.4	33
15	Nantes	32	7	11	14	-16	-18.8	32
16	Le Havre	31	8	4	19	-31	-22.5	28
17	St Etienne	32	7	6	19	-39	-35.9	27
18	Montpellier	31	4	4	23	-49	-26.6	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	13	2	1	+27	+30.7	41
2	Monaco	16	11	3	2	+20	+24.6	36
3	Strasbourg	16	10	5	1	+14	-1.4	35
4	Nice	16	10	4	2	+17	+16.5	34
5	Lille	15	10	3	2	+12	+3.7	33
6	Lyon	15	10	2	3	+15	+9.7	32
7	Marseille	16	9	4	3	+16	+15.1	31
8	Brest	15	8	3	4	+7	-0.9	27
9	Auxerre	15	7	5	3	+8	+1.2	26
10	Rennes	16	8	1	7	+6	+5.6	25
11	St Etienne	16	6	3	7	-8	-8.1	21
12	Lens	16	6	2	8	-7	+6.7	20
13	Toulouse	16	5	4	7	-2	+2.7	19
14	Nantes	16	4	6	6	-2	-0.2	18
15	Reims	16	4	4	8	-6	-7.3	16
16	Angers	16	4	2	10	-16	-12.4	14
17	Montpellier	16	3	4	9	-21	-5.7	13
18	Le Havre	16	3	2	11	-24	-12.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	11	4	1	+25	+24.9	37
2	Marseille	15	9	0	6	+7	-2.1	27
3	Lens	15	7	4	4	+5	-0.1	25
4	Lille	16	6	5	5	+5	+6.5	23
5	Nice	16	6	5	5	+4	+1.8	23
6	Lyon	16	6	4	6	+5	+1.8	22
7	Monaco	16	6	4	6	+4	+15.3	22
8	Strasbourg	16	6	4	6	+0	-6.3	22
9	Toulouse	16	5	4	7	+2	+7.7	19
10	Angers	16	5	4	7	-4	-6.1	19
11	Reims	16	4	5	7	-5	-12.9	17
12	Le Havre	15	5	2	8	-7	-9.6	17
13	Brest	16	5	2	9	-11	-7.3	17
14	Auxerre	16	4	3	9	-8	-13.9	15
15	Nantes	16	3	5	8	-14	-18.6	14
16	Rennes	16	4	1	11	-5	-0.2	13
17	St Etienne	16	1	3	12	-31	-27.9	6
18	Montpellier	15	1	0	14	-28	-20.9	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.