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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Chelsea

U T S S S

3–1

Full-time

Liverpool

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

2,2

2,0

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 62%

50%

74%

Points per game

1,8

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

59%

62%

Both score Ø 59%

62%

56%

Average goals

2,9

3,3

Scored

1,7

2,4

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,13 xG 1,05

35% Possession 65%

17 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 6

6 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 5. · Liverpool 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	34	25	7	2	+48	+46.8	82
2	Arsenal	35	18	13	4	+33	+25.8	67
3	Man City	35	19	7	9	+24	+16.7	64
4	Newcastle	35	19	6	10	+21	+16.9	63
5	Chelsea	34	17	9	8	+19	+19.5	60
6	Nott'm Forest	34	18	6	10	+12	-2.8	60
7	Aston Villa	35	17	9	9	+6	+8.2	60
8	Bournemouth	35	14	11	10	+13	+14.7	53
9	Brentford	35	15	7	13	+9	+1.3	52
10	Brighton	35	13	13	9	+1	+3.4	52
11	Fulham	35	14	9	12	+3	+5.2	51
12	Crystal Palace	34	11	12	11	-4	+6.9	45
13	Wolves	35	12	5	18	-11	-12.8	41
14	Everton	35	8	15	12	-7	-6.0	39
15	Man United	35	10	9	16	-9	-4.4	39
16	Tottenham	35	11	5	19	+6	-1.0	38
17	West Ham	35	9	10	16	-19	-11.2	37
18	Ipswich	35	4	10	21	-41	-39.8	22
19	Leicester	35	5	6	24	-47	-38.5	21
20	Southampton	35	2	5	28	-57	-48.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	14	2	1	+26	+22.7	44
2	Man City	18	12	3	3	+18	+15.0	39
3	Aston Villa	18	10	7	1	+12	+14.7	37
4	Arsenal	18	10	6	2	+17	+16.9	36
5	Newcastle	17	11	2	4	+19	+9.9	35
6	Chelsea	17	10	5	2	+14	+16.4	35
7	Nott'm Forest	17	9	4	4	+11	+3.2	31
8	Brentford	18	9	4	5	+6	+5.6	31
9	Brighton	18	7	8	3	+3	+5.5	29
10	Fulham	17	7	5	5	+1	+0.7	26
11	Bournemouth	17	7	4	6	+6	+7.9	25
12	Tottenham	17	6	3	8	+5	+2.2	21
13	Everton	18	4	9	5	+1	-0.8	21
14	Crystal Palace	17	5	6	6	-4	+6.1	21
15	Man United	17	6	3	8	-5	+0.9	21
16	Wolves	17	6	2	9	-3	-4.8	20
17	West Ham	18	5	5	8	-10	-8.3	20
18	Leicester	18	3	3	12	-21	-15.8	12
19	Ipswich	17	1	4	12	-27	-16.3	7
20	Southampton	17	1	2	14	-33	-27.2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	11	5	1	+22	+24.1	38
2	Arsenal	17	8	7	2	+16	+8.9	31
3	Nott'm Forest	17	9	2	6	+1	-5.9	29
4	Bournemouth	18	7	7	4	+7	+6.8	28
5	Newcastle	18	8	4	6	+2	+7.0	28
6	Man City	17	7	4	6	+6	+1.7	25
7	Chelsea	17	7	4	6	+5	+3.1	25
8	Fulham	18	7	4	7	+2	+4.5	25
9	Crystal Palace	17	6	6	5	+0	+0.8	24
10	Brighton	17	6	5	6	-2	-2.1	23
11	Aston Villa	17	7	2	8	-6	-6.4	23
12	Brentford	17	6	3	8	+3	-4.3	21
13	Wolves	18	6	3	9	-8	-8.0	21
14	Man United	18	4	6	8	-4	-5.3	18
15	Everton	17	4	6	7	-8	-5.3	18
16	Tottenham	18	5	2	11	+1	-3.1	17
17	West Ham	17	4	5	8	-9	-2.9	17
18	Ipswich	18	3	6	9	-14	-23.5	15
19	Leicester	17	2	3	12	-26	-22.7	9
20	Southampton	18	1	3	14	-24	-21.7	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.