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Super League

Referee: L Tschudi

Basel

T S S U S

4–4

Full-time

Lugano

U U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Basel Lugano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,3

Scored

2,7

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,3

This season — Super League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 41%

55%

27%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

73%

45%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

3,2

2,4

Scored

2,1

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–3

65% Possession 35%

13 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 10

3 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 15

5 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Basel 3. · Lugano 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Young Boys	33	20	7	6	+35	67
2	St. Gallen	34	20	5	9	+19	65
3	Basel	33	18	5	10	+36	59
4	Servette	33	11	13	9	+9	46
5	Luzern	33	12	6	15	-8	42
6	Zurich	33	12	6	15	-24	42
7	Lugano	33	9	13	11	-3	40
8	Thun	34	10	6	18	-22	36
9	Sion	33	8	9	16	-17	33
10	Xamax	33	5	12	16	-25	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Young Boys	16	14	2	0	+33	44
2	Basel	16	11	2	3	+25	35
3	St. Gallen	17	10	2	5	+7	32
4	Servette	16	7	7	2	+12	28
5	Luzern	17	7	4	6	+2	25
6	Thun	17	7	3	7	-3	24
7	Lugano	17	5	8	4	-1	23
8	Zurich	16	7	2	7	-13	23
9	Sion	17	4	6	7	-5	18
10	Xamax	17	2	5	10	-10	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	St. Gallen	17	10	3	4	+12	33
2	Basel	17	7	3	7	+11	24
3	Young Boys	17	6	5	6	+2	23
4	Zurich	17	5	4	8	-11	19
5	Servette	17	4	6	7	-3	18
6	Lugano	16	4	5	7	-2	17
7	Luzern	16	5	2	9	-10	17
8	Xamax	16	3	7	6	-15	16
9	Sion	16	4	3	9	-12	15
10	Thun	17	3	3	11	-19	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.