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Premiership
Referee: A Muir
St Mirren
S U S T U
1–2
Full-time
Hearts
T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Mirren Hearts
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,7
Scored
1,3
1,2
Conceded
1,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,3
This season — Premiership · 31/31 matches
Win Ø 47%
39%
55%
Points per game
1,4
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 39%
42%
35%
Both score Ø 37%
35%
39%
Average goals
2,4
2,3
Scored
1,2
1,3
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

58% Possession 42%
6 Shots 10
1 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 3
0 Goalkeeper saves 1
8 Corners 7
1 Offside 2
14 Free kicks against 5
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match St Mirren 5. · Hearts 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Celtic 31 23 5 3 +51 74
2 Rangers 30 24 1 5 +50 73
3 Hearts 31 17 5 9 +9 56
4 Kilmarnock 31 11 12 8 +6 45
5 St Mirren 31 12 7 12 -1 43
6 Dundee 30 10 9 11 -9 39
7 Hibernian 31 9 11 11 -6 38
8 Motherwell 31 7 12 12 -6 33
9 Aberdeen 31 8 9 14 -14 33
10 ST Johnstone 31 6 10 15 -21 28
11 Ross County 31 6 9 16 -24 27
12 Livingston 31 3 8 20 -35 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

St Mirren Hearts
32′
ℹ️ Kenneth Vargas
VAR: Penalty confirmed
33′
J. Grant 0–1
Half-time 0–1
K. Baccus 🔁
↦ Kwon Hyeok-Kyu
46′
C. McMenamin 🔁
↦ E. Bwomono
46′
46′
🔁 T. Sibbick
↦ S. Kingsley
48′
🟨 Macaulay Tait
59′
🔁 A. Denholm
↦ M. Tait
62′
🟨 Toby Sibbick
62′
M. Mandron 1–1
own goal
J. Ayunga 🔁
↦ M. Mandron
64′
M. O'Hara 🔁
↦ G. Kiltie
64′
2–1 T. Olusanya
M. O'Hara
68′
73′
🔁 N. Atkinson
↦ D. Lembikisa
73′
🔁 B. McKay
↦ A. Forrest
J. Scott 🔁
↦ R. Taylor
79′
Scott Tanser 🟨
82′
Conor McMenamin ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
85′
86′
🔁 S. Fraser
↦ J. Grant
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

St Mirren

3-4-3
1 Z. Hemming G
22 M. Fraser D
13 A. Gogić D
5 R. Taylor D
42 E. Bwomono M
16 Kwon Hyeok-Kyu M
15 C. Boyd-Munce M
3 S. Tanser M
20 T. Olusanya F
9 M. Mandron F
11 G. Kiltie F
Bench (9)
17 K. Baccus
10 C. McMenamin
7 J. Ayunga
6 M. O'Hara
14 J. Scott
21 J. Brown
27 P. Urminský
18 C. Dunne
2 J. Bolton

Coach: S. Robinson

Hearts

3-5-2
28 Z. Clark G
3 S. Kingsley D
2 F. Kent D
15 K. Rowles D
81 D. Lembikisa M
7 J. Grant M
14 C. Devlin M
25 M. Tait M
19 A. Cochrane M
77 K. Vargas F
17 A. Forrest F
Bench (9)
21 T. Sibbick
22 A. Denholm
13 N. Atkinson
18 B. McKay
29 S. Fraser
1 C. Gordon
11 Y. Oda
30 K. Tagawa
54 J. Wilson

Coach: S. Naismith

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,76
U
3,19
B ✓
2,60
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,10
U2,5
1,72
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

A Muir · 65 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.