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Serie A

Referee: M Guida

Roma

S U T S U

1–0

Full-time

Lazio

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 49%

50%

47%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

60%

43%

Both score Ø 55%

60%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,71 xG 0,44

46% Possession 54%

15 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 15

6 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 5. · Lazio 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	30	25	4	1	+59	+39.5	79
2	Milan	31	21	5	5	+26	+14.1	68
3	Juventus	30	17	8	5	+20	+23.4	59
4	Bologna	30	16	9	5	+20	+9.4	57
5	Roma	30	15	7	8	+20	+11.1	52
6	Atalanta	29	15	5	9	+22	+9.8	50
7	Lazio	30	14	4	12	+4	+2.8	46
8	Napoli	30	12	9	9	+8	+18.5	45
9	Torino	30	11	11	8	+3	+3.7	44
10	Fiorentina	29	12	7	10	+8	+0.8	43
11	Monza	30	11	9	10	-5	-10.2	42
12	Genoa	30	8	11	11	-5	-5.0	35
13	Lecce	31	6	11	14	-22	-13.4	29
14	Udinese	30	4	16	10	-16	-7.7	28
15	Verona	30	6	9	15	-13	-11.3	27
16	Cagliari	30	6	9	15	-21	-10.9	27
17	Frosinone	30	6	7	17	-23	-13.9	25
18	Sassuolo	31	6	7	18	-23	-14.1	25
19	Empoli	30	6	7	17	-23	-11.2	25
20	Salernitana	31	2	9	20	-39	-35.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	16	13	2	1	+31	+25.4	41
2	Bologna	16	12	2	2	+21	+7.4	38
3	Milan	15	11	2	2	+18	+8.3	35
4	Roma	15	10	3	2	+19	+10.4	33
5	Juventus	15	9	5	1	+12	+15.2	32
6	Atalanta	14	10	1	3	+21	+12.1	31
7	Fiorentina	15	8	3	4	+10	+6.1	27
8	Torino	15	7	6	2	+7	+8.4	27
9	Lazio	15	7	3	5	+3	+6.8	24
10	Monza	15	6	5	4	+1	-3.4	23
11	Napoli	15	6	4	5	-1	+11.1	22
12	Genoa	15	5	6	4	+0	-0.8	21
13	Frosinone	15	6	3	6	-1	-1.9	21
14	Cagliari	15	5	5	5	-4	+4.1	20
15	Lecce	15	5	5	5	-7	-2.0	20
16	Verona	14	4	5	5	-3	-4.3	17
17	Sassuolo	15	4	4	7	-7	-5.4	16
18	Udinese	15	1	9	5	-6	+2.0	12
19	Empoli	15	2	4	9	-11	-4.1	10
20	Salernitana	16	1	5	10	-17	-12.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	12	2	0	+28	+14.1	38
2	Milan	16	10	3	3	+8	+5.8	33
3	Juventus	15	8	3	4	+8	+8.1	27
4	Napoli	15	6	5	4	+9	+7.4	23
5	Lazio	15	7	1	7	+1	-4.0	22
6	Atalanta	15	5	4	6	+1	-2.3	19
7	Roma	15	5	4	6	+1	+0.7	19
8	Bologna	14	4	7	3	-1	+2.0	19
9	Monza	15	5	4	6	-6	-6.8	19
10	Torino	15	4	5	6	-4	-4.7	17
11	Fiorentina	14	4	4	6	-2	-5.3	16
12	Udinese	15	3	7	5	-10	-9.8	16
13	Empoli	15	4	3	8	-12	-7.1	15
14	Genoa	15	3	5	7	-5	-4.2	14
15	Verona	16	2	4	10	-10	-7.0	10
16	Lecce	16	1	6	9	-15	-11.4	9
17	Sassuolo	16	2	3	11	-16	-8.6	9
18	Cagliari	15	1	4	10	-17	-14.9	7
19	Salernitana	15	1	4	10	-22	-22.9	7
20	Frosinone	15	0	4	11	-22	-12.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.