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Championship
Referee: J Busby
Cardiff
S S T T S
1–3
Full-time
Hull
U U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Hull
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
67%
0%
Points per game
2,0
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,0
2,3
Scored
1,0
0,8
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 40/39 matches
Win Ø 42%
43%
41%
Points per game
1,4
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
48%
56%
Both score Ø 54%
43%
64%
Average goals
2,5
2,7
Scored
1,1
1,4
Conceded
1,4
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,54 xG 1,53
44% Possession 56%
13 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 6
5 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 6
0 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Cardiff 11. · Hull 10.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Ipswich 41 26 9 6 +32 +23.5 87
2 Leicester 39 27 4 8 +42 +32.0 85
3 Leeds 38 24 8 6 +42 +34.8 80
4 West Brom 38 19 11 8 +26 +5.9 68
5 Southampton 36 20 8 8 +22 +28.5 68
6 Norwich 39 20 7 12 +17 +0.0 67
7 Coventry 39 16 12 11 +17 +11.7 60
8 Preston 39 17 8 14 -3 -11.7 59
9 Middlesbrough 40 17 7 16 +3 +13.0 58
10 Hull 39 16 10 13 +3 +3.6 58
11 Cardiff 40 17 5 18 -9 -22.8 56
12 Bristol City 40 15 8 17 -1 -2.6 53
13 Sunderland 40 15 6 19 +1 +6.4 51
14 Watford 40 12 14 14 +2 +1.0 50
15 Swansea 40 12 11 17 -11 -9.0 47
16 QPR 40 12 10 18 -12 -6.1 46
17 Blackburn 40 12 9 19 -10 -4.9 45
18 Stoke 40 12 9 19 -16 -3.1 45
19 Plymouth 41 11 11 19 -9 -17.2 44
20 Millwall 40 11 11 18 -15 -11.1 44
21 Birmingham 40 11 9 20 -17 -8.2 42
22 Huddersfield 40 8 16 16 -21 -11.0 40
23 Sheffield Weds 40 11 6 23 -33 -10.6 39
24 Rotherham 41 4 11 26 -50 -41.9 23

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Cardiff Hull
32′
Fábio Carvalho 0–1
44′
Fábio Carvalho 0–2
O. Tufan
Half-time 1–2
1–2 K. Ahearne-Grant
J. Collins
57′
A. Ramsey 🔁
↦ D. Turnbull
58′
J. Wilson-Esbrand 🔁
↦ J. Bowler
58′
59′
J. Philogene 1–3
62′
🟨 Jacob Greaves
62′
🔁 C. Christie
↦ T. Morton
70′
🟨 Alfie Jones
Manolis Siopis 🟨
72′
F. Diédhiou 🔁
↦ Y. Meïté
72′
O. Tanner 🔁
↦ J. Wilson-Esbrand
76′
76′
🔁 S. McLoughlin
↦ A. Ömür
76′
🔁 A. Zaroury
↦ O. Tufan
86′
🔁 B. Sharp
↦ Fábio Carvalho
91′
🟨 Cyrus Christie
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Cardiff

4-4-2
1 E. Horvath G
38 P. Ng D
12 N. Phillips D
4 D. Goutas D
17 J. Collins D
14 J. Bowler M
23 M. Siopis M
8 J. Ralls M
16 K. Ahearne-Grant M
15 D. Turnbull F
22 Y. Meïté F
Bench (9)
10 A. Ramsey
30 J. Wilson-Esbrand
20 F. Diédhiou
32 O. Tanner
47 C. Robinson
34 J. Colwill
2 M. Romeo
41 M. Turner
45 C. Ashford

Coach: E. Bulut

Hull

4-4-2
17 R. Allsop G
27 R. Slater D
5 A. Jones D
4 J. Greaves D
29 M. Jacob D
50 A. Ömür M
15 T. Morton M
24 J. Seri M
23 J. Philogene M
7 O. Tufan F
45 Fábio Carvalho F
Bench (9)
33 C. Christie
6 S. McLoughlin
47 A. Zaroury
12 B. Sharp
30 I. Pandur
8 G. Docherty
44 A. Connolly
9 N. Ohio
10 A. Traoré

Coach: L. Rosenior

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,13
U
3,28
B ✓
2,33
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,15
U2,5
1,70
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Busby · 113 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,05 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.