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Super League
Referee: H Osmers
AEK
S T S S U
2–1
Full-time
Panathinaikos
T S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AEK Panathinaikos
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,2
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 17%
17%
17%
Average goals
2,3
1,5
Scored
1,7
0,3
Conceded
0,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Super League · 31/31 matches
Win Ø 58%
68%
48%
Points per game
2,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 44%
39%
48%
Both score Ø 42%
32%
52%
Average goals
2,4
2,5
Scored
1,8
1,5
Conceded
0,6
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,16 xG 0,45
62% Possession 38%
17 Shots 10
6 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 1
2 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 16
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match AEK 1. · Panathinaikos 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 AEK 31 21 8 2 +37 +12.3 71
2 PAOK 31 19 8 4 +36 +5.2 65
3 Olympiakos 31 19 8 4 +34 +13.4 65
4 Panathinaikos 31 15 10 6 +18 +6.5 55
5 Levadeiakos 33 14 10 9 +18 -3.9 52
6 OFI Crete 34 13 3 18 -12 -7.3 42
7 Atromitos 35 10 11 14 -2 -0.8 41
8 Aris Thessalonikis 30 9 13 8 -2 -1.0 40
9 Aris 30 9 13 8 -2 40
10 Kifisia 35 8 14 13 -10 +3.0 38
11 Panetolikos 35 10 7 18 -14 -6.3 37
12 Volos NFC 33 9 6 18 -22 -3.2 33
13 Asteras Tripolis 35 6 12 17 -16 -3.3 30
14 Panserraikos 35 7 9 19 -41 -6.9 30
15 Larisa 35 5 14 16 -22 -7.7 29

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

AEK Panathinaikos
Harold Moukoudi 🟨
18′
Filipe Relvas 🟨
34′
42′
🟨 Davide Calabria
Half-time 0–0
61′
🟨 Andreas Tetteh
62′
A. Tetteh 0–1
Thomas Strakosha 🟨
64′
Zini 🔁
↦ R. Pereyra
66′
1–1 Zini
72′
73′
🔁 A. Zaroury
↦ P. Pantelidis
74′
🔁 M. Siopis
↦ S. Kontouris
79′
🔁 A. Jagusic
↦ S. Andino
84′
🔁 F. Djuricic
↦ V. Taborda
84′
🔁 M. Pantovic
↦ A. Tetteh
Orbelín Pineda 🟨
85′
P. Mantalos 🔁
↦ A. Koita
86′
Joao Mario 🔁
↦ R. Marin
86′
2–1 Joao Mario
90′
R. Ljubicic 🔁
↦ L. Jovic
96′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

AEK

4-4-2
1 T. Strakosha G
12 L. Rota D
2 H. Moukoudi D
44 F. Relvas D
3 S. Pilios D
11 A. Koita M
13 O. Pineda M
18 R. Marin M
37 R. Pereyra M
25 B. Varga F
9 L. Jovic F
Bench (12)
91 A. Brignoli
81 A. Angelopoulos
20 P. Mantalos
19 N. Eliasson
7 D. Kutesa
29 J. Penrice
10 Joao Mario
21 D. Vida
4 M. Grujic
23 R. Ljubicic
90 Zini
15 M. Georgiev

Coach: Marko Nikolic

Panathinaikos

4-4-2
40 A. Lafont G
2 D. Calabria D
14 E. Palmer-Brown D
5 A. Touba D
77 G. Kyriakopoulos D
23 P. Pantelidis
18 S. Kontouris M
16 A. Gnezda Cerin M
10 S. Andino M
7 A. Tetteh
20 V. Taborda F
Bench (11)
12 L. Chaves
70 K. Kotsaris
31 F. Djuricic
52 T. Vilhena
4 P. Chirivella
19 K. Swiderski
27 G. Kotsiras
6 M. Siopis
72 M. Pantovic
9 A. Zaroury
88 A. Jagusic

Coach: Rafael Benitez

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,48
U
3,81
B
6,18
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,04
U2,5
1,70
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

H Osmers · 139 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.