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Ligue 1

Referee: B Dechepy

Toulouse

T T T U S

2–1

Full-time

Lyon

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,2

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

2,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 45%

34%

56%

Points per game

1,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

Both score Ø 49%

47%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,13 xG 1,54

39% Possession 61%

14 Shots 18

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 8

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 9

6 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 10. · Lyon 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	31	22	4	5	+43	+42.3	70
2	Lens	32	21	4	7	+29	+22.7	67
3	Lyon	32	18	6	8	+18	+7.6	60
4	Lille	32	17	7	8	+16	+17.4	58
5	Rennes	32	16	8	8	+10	+1.0	56
6	Monaco	32	16	6	10	+8	+8.2	54
7	Marseille	32	16	5	11	+15	+13.3	53
8	Strasbourg	31	13	7	11	+9	+7.4	46
9	Lorient	32	10	12	10	-5	-2.4	42
10	Toulouse	32	11	8	13	+0	+0.3	41
11	Paris FC	32	10	11	11	-3	-11.8	41
12	Brest	31	10	8	13	-10	-6.6	38
13	Angers	32	9	7	16	-19	-21.2	34
14	Le Havre	32	6	14	12	-13	-12.8	32
15	Nice	32	7	10	15	-22	-17.1	31
16	Auxerre	32	6	10	16	-13	-11.1	28
17	Nantes	33	5	8	20	-23	-11.7	23
18	Metz	32	3	7	22	-40	-25.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	16	14	0	2	+24	+19.9	42
2	Paris SG	16	12	2	2	+28	+23.5	38
3	Lyon	16	12	1	3	+16	+11.2	37
4	Marseille	16	10	4	2	+19	+13.2	34
5	Monaco	16	10	2	4	+11	+9.8	32
6	Rennes	16	9	4	3	+12	+6.4	31
7	Lorient	16	8	6	2	+8	+5.6	30
8	Lille	16	8	5	3	+9	+13.3	29
9	Strasbourg	16	8	3	5	+10	+10.9	27
10	Brest	15	7	4	4	+6	+4.7	25
11	Le Havre	16	5	8	3	+3	+1.2	23
12	Paris FC	16	6	4	6	+0	-3.2	22
13	Angers	16	6	4	6	-2	-7.3	22
14	Toulouse	16	5	6	5	+0	+6.2	21
15	Auxerre	16	5	4	7	+0	+0.3	19
16	Nice	16	4	7	5	-8	-4.4	19
17	Nantes	16	3	3	10	-9	-4.8	12
18	Metz	16	2	4	10	-13	-2.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	10	2	3	+15	+18.8	32
2	Lille	16	9	2	5	+7	+4.1	29
3	Lens	16	7	4	5	+5	+2.8	25
4	Rennes	16	7	4	5	-2	-5.4	25
5	Lyon	16	6	5	5	+2	-3.6	23
6	Monaco	16	6	4	6	-3	-1.7	22
7	Toulouse	16	6	2	8	+0	-6.0	20
8	Strasbourg	15	5	4	6	-1	-3.5	19
9	Paris FC	16	4	7	5	-3	-8.6	19
10	Marseille	16	6	1	9	-4	+0.1	19
11	Brest	16	3	4	9	-16	-11.2	13
12	Lorient	16	2	6	8	-13	-8.0	12
13	Nice	16	3	3	10	-14	-12.7	12
14	Angers	16	3	3	10	-17	-13.9	12
15	Nantes	17	2	5	10	-14	-6.9	11
16	Auxerre	16	1	6	9	-13	-11.4	9
17	Le Havre	16	1	6	9	-16	-14.1	9
18	Metz	16	1	3	12	-27	-23.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.