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Eredivisie

Referee: A Bos

Groningen

S S U T T

2–1

Full-time

Nijmegen

S U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Groningen Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 31/32 matches

Win Ø 43%

39%

47%

Points per game

1,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

55%

72%

Both score Ø 68%

55%

81%

Average goals

2,8

3,9

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,56 xG 1,08

50% Possession 50%

11 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 6

6 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Groningen 10. · Nijmegen 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	32	25	3	4	+49	+31.9	78
2	Feyenoord	32	18	7	7	+24	+27.2	61
3	Nijmegen	32	15	11	6	+24	+11.2	56
4	Twente	32	14	13	5	+19	+25.3	55
5	Ajax	31	13	13	5	+20	+8.1	52
6	AZ Alkmaar	32	14	8	10	+7	+20.2	50
7	Heerenveen	31	14	7	10	+6	+10.3	49
8	Utrecht	31	13	7	11	+10	+2.4	46
9	Sparta Rotterdam	32	12	7	13	-17	-5.7	43
10	Groningen	31	12	6	13	+4	+10.6	42
11	Go Ahead Eagles	32	8	14	10	+5	-17.1	38
12	Zwolle	32	9	10	13	-24	-18.0	37
13	For Sittard	32	10	6	16	-13	-17.3	36
14	Excelsior	32	9	7	16	-14	-13.7	34
15	Telstar	32	7	10	15	-10	-12.3	31
16	Volendam	32	8	7	17	-19	-24.2	31
17	NAC Breda	32	5	10	17	-25	-12.9	25
18	Heracles	32	5	4	23	-46	-25.9	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	12	2	2	+28	+18.5	38
2	Feyenoord	16	11	2	3	+16	+18.7	35
3	AZ Alkmaar	16	8	6	2	+13	+15.3	30
4	Utrecht	15	9	2	4	+16	+9.8	29
5	Nijmegen	16	8	5	3	+15	+10.9	29
6	Heerenveen	16	8	5	3	+9	+13.1	29
7	Twente	16	8	5	3	+9	+15.2	29
8	Ajax	15	8	4	3	+14	+12.6	28
9	Zwolle	16	8	4	4	+2	+0.4	28
10	Go Ahead Eagles	16	6	7	3	+13	+2.8	25
11	Volendam	16	6	5	5	+2	-3.5	23
12	Sparta Rotterdam	16	6	5	5	-5	+0.3	23
13	Groningen	16	6	4	6	+8	+6.0	22
14	For Sittard	16	6	4	6	-2	-1.8	22
15	Telstar	16	4	5	7	+0	-0.8	17
16	Excelsior	16	5	2	9	-2	-2.4	17
17	NAC Breda	16	4	5	7	-5	+1.6	17
18	Heracles	16	4	3	9	-12	-6.4	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	13	1	2	+21	+13.3	40
2	Nijmegen	16	7	6	3	+9	+0.3	27
3	Twente	16	6	8	2	+10	+10.1	26
4	Feyenoord	16	7	5	4	+8	+8.4	26
5	Ajax	16	5	9	2	+6	-4.5	24
6	Heerenveen	15	6	2	7	-3	-2.8	20
7	Groningen	15	6	2	7	-4	+4.6	20
8	AZ Alkmaar	16	6	2	8	-6	+4.9	20
9	Sparta Rotterdam	16	6	2	8	-12	-6.0	20
10	Utrecht	16	4	5	7	-6	-7.4	17
11	Excelsior	16	4	5	7	-12	-11.3	17
12	Telstar	16	3	5	8	-10	-11.5	14
13	For Sittard	16	4	2	10	-11	-15.5	14
14	Go Ahead Eagles	16	2	7	7	-8	-19.8	13
15	Zwolle	16	1	6	9	-26	-18.3	9
16	NAC Breda	16	1	5	10	-20	-14.6	8
17	Volendam	16	2	2	12	-21	-20.7	8
18	Heracles	16	1	1	14	-34	-19.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.