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Bundesliga

Referee: A Sadikovski

Hartberg

U U S T T

2–4

Full-time

Sturm Graz

U U U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hartberg Sturm Graz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 39%

30%

47%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

43%

40%

Both score Ø 54%

50%

57%

Average goals

2,3

2,6

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

1,30 xG 1,79

55% Possession 45%

13 Shots 26

6 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 7

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 7

1 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hartberg 8. · Sturm Graz 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	LASK	30	15	7	8	+10	+13.2	52
2	Sturm Graz	30	14	8	8	+12	+8.2	50
3	Salzburg	30	13	9	8	+18	+9.9	48
4	SK Rapid	30	12	8	10	-1	-2.1	44
5	Austria Vienna	30	13	5	12	-4	+0.2	44
6	Ried	31	12	6	13	-2	-0.8	42
7	Tirol	31	10	10	11	-10	+1.0	40
8	Hartberg	30	9	12	9	+0	-13.6	39
9	Altach	31	9	12	10	-5	-6.6	39
10	Wolfsberger AC	31	10	8	13	-3	-12.3	38
11	Grazer AK	31	8	10	13	-6	-0.7	34
12	BW Linz	31	8	5	18	-9	+3.5	29

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	LASK	15	9	3	3	+8	+10.5	30
2	Altach	15	7	6	2	+4	+1.1	27
3	Ried	16	8	3	5	+3	+1.9	27
4	Tirol	16	7	5	4	+3	+3.6	26
5	Grazer AK	16	6	7	3	+6	+3.1	25
6	SK Rapid	15	7	2	6	+1	-0.8	23
7	Salzburg	15	6	4	5	+8	+5.0	22
8	BW Linz	15	7	1	7	+8	+7.3	22
9	Wolfsberger AC	15	5	6	4	+3	-3.5	21
10	Austria Vienna	15	6	3	6	-5	+1.3	21
11	Sturm Graz	15	5	5	5	-2	+3.9	20
12	Hartberg	15	4	5	6	-4	-4.6	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	15	9	3	3	+14	+4.3	30
2	Salzburg	15	7	5	3	+10	+4.9	26
3	Austria Vienna	15	7	2	6	+1	-1.1	23
4	Hartberg	15	5	7	3	+4	-9.0	22
5	LASK	15	6	4	5	+2	+2.7	22
6	SK Rapid	15	5	6	4	-2	-1.3	21
7	Wolfsberger AC	16	5	2	9	-6	-8.8	17
8	Ried	15	4	3	8	-5	-2.7	15
9	Tirol	15	3	5	7	-13	-2.6	14
10	Altach	16	2	6	8	-9	-7.7	12
11	Grazer AK	15	2	3	10	-12	-3.9	9
12	BW Linz	16	1	4	11	-17	-3.8	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.