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La Liga

Referee: A Hernandez

Barcelona

S S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Real Madrid

U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 78%

85%

71%

Points per game

2,6

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

76%

59%

Both score Ø 59%

59%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

2,6

2,1

Conceded

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,01 xG 0,85

57% Possession 43%

10 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 8

2 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	34	29	1	4	+58	+41.0	88
2	Real Madrid	34	24	5	5	+39	+35.2	77
3	Villarreal	35	21	6	8	+25	+11.1	69
4	Ath Madrid	35	19	6	10	+20	+12.2	63
5	Betis	35	13	15	7	+11	+8.9	54
6	Celta	35	13	11	11	+5	+1.3	50
7	Getafe	35	13	6	16	-8	-11.9	45
8	Sociedad	35	11	11	13	-1	-0.8	44
9	Ath Bilbao	35	13	5	17	-11	+7.2	44
10	Osasuna	35	11	9	15	-3	-5.1	42
11	Vallecano	34	10	12	12	-6	+2.8	42
12	Valencia	35	11	9	15	-12	+2.5	42
13	Sevilla	35	11	7	17	-13	-16.9	40
14	Elche	35	9	12	14	-8	-19.4	39
15	Mallorca	35	10	9	16	-9	-18.5	39
16	Espanol	35	10	9	16	-15	-6.0	39
17	Girona	34	9	11	14	-15	-10.3	38
18	Alaves	35	9	10	16	-13	-2.7	37
19	Levante	35	9	9	17	-16	-10.3	36
20	Oviedo	35	6	11	18	-28	-20.4	29

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	17	0	0	+43	+26.4	51
2	Villarreal	17	14	1	2	+26	+10.8	43
3	Real Madrid	17	14	1	2	+25	+23.1	43
4	Ath Madrid	18	14	1	3	+21	+19.8	43
5	Elche	18	8	8	2	+10	-2.7	32
6	Osasuna	17	9	5	3	+9	+7.9	32
7	Betis	17	8	6	3	+13	+9.3	30
8	Mallorca	18	8	6	4	+7	+0.9	30
9	Sociedad	18	8	5	5	+7	+7.7	29
10	Ath Bilbao	18	9	2	7	+1	+10.5	29
11	Vallecano	17	6	9	2	+7	+9.9	27
12	Valencia	17	7	5	5	+2	+9.5	26
13	Sevilla	18	7	4	7	+0	-1.4	25
14	Alaves	17	6	6	5	+0	+2.1	24
15	Levante	18	6	5	7	-4	-0.1	23
16	Espanol	17	6	4	7	-5	-0.1	22
17	Girona	17	6	4	7	-6	-6.1	22
18	Getafe	17	6	3	8	-1	-3.2	21
19	Celta	17	5	5	7	+1	+4.1	20
20	Oviedo	18	4	7	7	-8	-10.0	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	12	1	4	+15	+14.6	37
2	Real Madrid	17	10	4	3	+14	+12.0	34
3	Celta	18	8	6	4	+4	-2.7	30
4	Villarreal	18	7	5	6	-1	+0.3	26
5	Betis	18	5	9	4	-2	-0.4	24
6	Getafe	18	7	3	8	-7	-8.7	24
7	Ath Madrid	17	5	5	7	-1	-7.6	20
8	Espanol	18	4	5	9	-10	-5.9	17
9	Girona	17	3	7	7	-9	-4.2	16
10	Valencia	18	4	4	10	-14	-7.0	16
11	Sociedad	17	3	6	8	-8	-8.5	15
12	Ath Bilbao	17	4	3	10	-12	-3.3	15
13	Sevilla	17	4	3	10	-13	-15.4	15
14	Vallecano	17	4	3	10	-13	-7.1	15
15	Levante	17	3	4	10	-12	-10.2	13
16	Alaves	18	3	4	11	-13	-4.8	13
17	Osasuna	18	2	4	12	-12	-13.0	10
18	Oviedo	17	2	4	11	-20	-10.5	10
19	Mallorca	17	2	3	12	-16	-19.5	9
20	Elche	17	1	4	12	-18	-16.7	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.