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Taça de Portugal

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Pacos Ferreira

T S T T S

1–3

Full-time

Guimaraes

S T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pacos Ferreira Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Amarante	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Anadia	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Oliveira Hospital	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
11	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
12	Lusitânia	2	2	0	0	+2	6
13	Maria da Fonte	2	2	0	0	+2	6
14	Sanjoanense	2	1	1	0	+5	4
15	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
16	São João Ver	2	1	1	0	+1	4
17	Brito	2	1	1	0	+1	4
18	Vila Real	2	1	1	0	+1	4
19	Caldas	3	1	1	1	+0	4
20	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+5	3
21	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
22	SC Covilha	1	1	0	0	+4	3
23	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
24	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
25	Alpendorada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
26	Varzim	1	1	0	0	+3	3
27	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+2	3
28	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+2	3
29	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Lagoa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
36	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
38	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Machico	2	1	0	1	+1	3
40	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
41	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
44	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Atlético Arcos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Os Limianos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Aliança de Gandra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Vieira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
66	CF Benfica	2	1	0	1	-2	3
67	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
68	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
69	Lajense	3	1	0	2	-5	3
70	AD Marco 09	2	0	2	0	+0	2
71	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
73	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	1	0	+0	1
74	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
75	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
76	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	O Elvas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	União de Coimbra	2	0	1	1	-2	1
81	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
121	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
122	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
123	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
124	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
125	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
126	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
127	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
128	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
129	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
131	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
132	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
134	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Oliveira Hospital	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Brito	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	SC Covilha	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Alpendorada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Varzim	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Machico	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Vieira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Lagoa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
21	CF Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+1	3
24	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
25	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
26	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Aliança de Gandra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	São João Ver	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Lajense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Caldas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
41	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	União de Coimbra	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Vila Real	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Arronches e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
73	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Amarante	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Sanjoanense	2	1	1	0	+5	4
3	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+5	3
5	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
6	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Arronches e Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Os Limianos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
17	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Atlético Arcos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
31	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
32	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
36	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	São João Ver	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	O Elvas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Louletano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Aliança de Gandra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Vieira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	CF Benfica	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
77	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Lajense	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.