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Conference League
Referee: L D'hondt
Guimaraes
S S S T U
3–1
Full-time
Celje
T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Celje
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,5
3,0
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 6/2 matches
Win Ø 75%
100%
50%
Points per game
3,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 25%
0%
50%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
2,8
2,0
Conceded
0,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+2,8
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,03 xG 0,16
52% Possession 48%
17 Shots 5
10 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
5 Corners 5
3 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 7
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

3. Aug -23 Guimaraes – Celje 0–1 27. Jul -23 Celje – Guimaraes 3–4

Match report

Guimaraes Celje
1–0 Samu ⚽
7′
2–0 Gustavo Silva ⚽
Bruno Gaspar
36′
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 I. Brnić
↦ Juanjo Nieto
3–0 Tiago Silva ⚽
Gustavo Silva
62′
63′
🔁 C. Lhernault
↦ L. Bobičanec
63′
🔁 N. Kouter
↦ M. Dulca
Zé Carlos 🔁
↦ Tiago Silva
67′
Nuno Santos 🔁
↦ Gustavo Silva
67′
J. Ramírez 🔁
↦ Nélson Oliveira
67′
69′
🟨 Armandas Kučys
73′
🔁 Edmilson
↦ A. Kučys
João Mendes 🔁
↦ Samu
76′
Manu 🔁
↦ Tomás Händel
76′
87′
🟨 Edmilson
91′
⚽ A. Matko 3–1
I. Brnić
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Guimaraes

4-3-3
14 Bruno Varela G
76 Bruno Gaspar D
24 T. Borevković D
3 M. Villanueva D
13 João Teixeira Mendes D
10 Tiago Silva M
8 Tomás Händel M
20 Samu M
71 Gustavo Silva F
7 Nélson Oliveira F
11 Kaio César F
Bench (12)
28 Zé Carlos
77 Nuno Santos
9 J. Ramírez
17 João Mendes
6 Manu
27 Charles
15 Óscar Rivas
22 Alberto Baio
4 Tomás Ribeiro
2 Miguel Maga
79 Bica
18 Telmo Arcanjo

Coach: Rui Borges

Celje

3-5-1-1
22 M. Rožman G
6 D. Zec D
3 D. Vukliševič D
81 K. Nemanič D
7 A. Matko M
8 L. Bobičanec M
4 M. Dulca M
88 T. Svetlin M
2 Juanjo Nieto M
11 S. Sešlar F
47 A. Kučys F
Bench (6)
77 I. Brnić
5 C. Lhernault
10 N. Kouter
30 Edmilson
12 L. Kolar
98 L. Štubljar

Coach: Albert Riera

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

L D'hondt · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.