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Championship

Referee: S Martin

Luton

S S T U T

3–0

Full-time

Watford

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 39%

22%

56%

Points per game

0,9

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

56%

78%

Both score Ø 62%

56%

67%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

0,9

1,6

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,30 xG 0,45

41% Possession 59%

13 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

11 Corners 4

4 Offside 2

22 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 21. · Watford 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sheffield United	10	6	3	1	+7	+3.6	21
2	Sunderland	9	6	1	2	+10	+2.9	19
3	Leeds	10	5	4	1	+10	+10.0	19
4	Burnley	9	5	3	1	+10	+1.5	18
5	West Brom	9	5	2	2	+6	+5.5	17
6	Watford	9	5	1	3	+0	-4.1	16
7	Norwich	9	4	3	2	+6	+5.7	15
8	Blackburn	9	4	3	2	+4	+0.1	15
9	Middlesbrough	9	4	2	3	+3	+8.7	14
10	Oxford	9	3	3	3	+2	-2.6	12
11	Swansea	9	3	3	3	+2	-3.2	12
12	Derby	9	4	0	5	+0	-1.3	12
13	Hull	9	3	3	3	-1	-2.6	12
14	Plymouth	9	3	2	4	-3	-8.6	11
15	Sheffield Weds	9	3	2	4	-4	-1.6	11
16	Bristol City	9	2	5	2	-4	+0.4	11
17	Stoke	9	3	1	5	-2	-3.0	10
18	Millwall	9	2	3	4	+1	+6.3	9
19	Preston	9	2	3	4	-5	-5.0	9
20	Coventry	9	2	2	5	-3	+2.4	8
21	Luton	9	2	2	5	-7	+0.9	8
22	QPR	9	1	4	4	-7	-2.2	7
23	Portsmouth	9	0	5	4	-11	-8.1	5
24	Cardiff	9	1	2	6	-14	-5.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	5	4	1	0	+8	+1.4	13
2	Watford	5	4	1	0	+6	+1.4	13
3	Sheffield United	5	4	1	0	+5	+4.9	13
4	Blackburn	4	4	0	0	+8	+2.8	12
5	Derby	5	4	0	1	+6	+1.1	12
6	Burnley	5	3	2	0	+7	+0.9	11
7	Leeds	5	3	1	1	+6	+6.4	10
8	Oxford	4	3	1	0	+5	-0.2	10
9	Plymouth	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.3	10
10	Norwich	5	2	3	0	+7	+5.5	9
11	Swansea	5	2	3	0	+4	+2.3	9
12	Bristol City	5	2	3	0	+2	+0.8	9
13	Middlesbrough	4	2	2	0	+3	+7.1	8
14	West Brom	5	2	2	1	+1	+3.7	8
15	Sheffield Weds	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.3	7
16	Preston	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.1	7
17	Stoke	4	2	0	2	+3	+1.2	6
18	Millwall	4	2	0	2	+3	+5.5	6
19	Coventry	5	2	0	3	+1	+3.3	6
20	Hull	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.2	5
21	Luton	4	1	1	2	-3	+1.3	4
22	Portsmouth	5	0	3	2	-5	-2.9	3
23	Cardiff	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.1	3
24	QPR	4	0	2	2	-4	+1.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	4	3	0	1	+5	+1.8	9
2	Leeds	5	2	3	0	+4	+3.6	9
3	Sheffield United	5	2	2	1	+2	-1.3	8
4	Burnley	4	2	1	1	+3	+0.6	7
5	Hull	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.9	7
6	Sunderland	4	2	0	2	+2	+1.4	6
7	Middlesbrough	5	2	0	3	+0	+1.6	6
8	Norwich	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.2	6
9	QPR	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.3	5
10	Luton	5	1	1	3	-4	-0.4	4
11	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-5	-4.2	4
12	Sheffield Weds	5	1	1	3	-7	-4.9	4
13	Millwall	5	0	3	2	-2	+0.8	3
14	Swansea	4	1	0	3	-2	-5.5	3
15	Blackburn	5	0	3	2	-4	-2.7	3
16	Watford	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.5	3
17	Oxford	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.4	2
18	Coventry	4	0	2	2	-4	-0.9	2
19	Portsmouth	4	0	2	2	-6	-5.2	2
20	Bristol City	4	0	2	2	-6	-0.5	2
21	Preston	5	0	2	3	-7	-4.9	2
22	Cardiff	5	0	2	3	-9	-1.6	2
23	Plymouth	4	0	1	3	-6	-8.9	1
24	Derby	4	0	0	4	-6	-2.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.