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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Pacos Ferreira

S S S U T

2–1

Full-time

Guimaraes

S U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pacos Ferreira Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 50%

53%

47%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

32%

42%

Both score Ø 42%

47%

37%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

58% Possession 42%

8 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Pacos Ferreira 5. · Guimaraes 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	20	17	3	0	+32	54
2	Porto	19	12	5	2	+22	41
3	Sp Braga	19	13	1	5	+15	40
4	Benfica	19	11	5	3	+16	38
5	Pacos Ferreira	19	10	5	4	+10	35
6	Guimaraes	19	9	5	5	+5	32
7	Santa Clara	20	7	4	9	-3	25
8	Moreirense	20	6	7	7	-6	25
9	Rio Ave	19	5	7	7	-6	22
10	Belenenses	20	4	9	7	-5	21
11	Nacional	20	5	6	9	-7	21
12	Tondela	19	6	3	10	-11	21
13	Portimonense	20	5	4	11	-8	19
14	Gil Vicente	20	5	4	11	-10	19
15	Boavista	20	3	9	8	-12	18
16	Farense	19	4	5	10	-7	17
17	Maritimo	19	5	2	12	-10	17
18	Famalicao	19	3	6	10	-15	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+15	26
2	Porto	10	7	2	1	+12	23
3	Benfica	10	7	2	1	+10	23
4	Sp Braga	9	7	1	1	+8	22
5	Pacos Ferreira	9	6	2	1	+7	20
6	Tondela	10	6	2	2	+3	20
7	Portimonense	9	4	2	3	+3	14
8	Belenenses	11	3	5	3	+0	14
9	Moreirense	10	3	5	2	-1	14
10	Guimaraes	10	4	1	5	-4	13
11	Farense	10	3	3	4	+1	12
12	Rio Ave	9	3	3	3	+0	12
13	Nacional	10	3	3	4	-2	12
14	Gil Vicente	10	3	2	5	-2	11
15	Santa Clara	9	2	2	5	-4	8
16	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-6	8
17	Boavista	10	2	2	6	-9	8
18	Famalicao	10	1	4	5	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	9	1	0	+17	28
2	Guimaraes	9	5	4	0	+9	19
3	Porto	9	5	3	1	+10	18
4	Sp Braga	10	6	0	4	+7	18
5	Santa Clara	11	5	2	4	+1	17
6	Benfica	9	4	3	2	+6	15
7	Pacos Ferreira	10	4	3	3	+3	15
8	Moreirense	10	3	2	5	-5	11
9	Boavista	10	1	7	2	-3	10
10	Rio Ave	10	2	4	4	-6	10
11	Maritimo	10	3	0	7	-4	9
12	Nacional	10	2	3	5	-5	9
13	Famalicao	9	2	2	5	-5	8
14	Gil Vicente	10	2	2	6	-8	8
15	Belenenses	9	1	4	4	-5	7
16	Farense	9	1	2	6	-8	5
17	Portimonense	11	1	2	8	-11	5
18	Tondela	9	0	1	8	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.