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Premier League
Referee: A Marriner
Watford
T U T T S
1–4
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Crystal Palace
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
17%
0%
Points per game
0,8
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
17%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
1,5
2,3
Scored
0,3
0,8
Conceded
1,2
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,8
-0,7
This season — Premier League · 24/25 matches
Win Ø 21%
21%
20%
Points per game
0,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 51%
46%
56%
Both score Ø 49%
46%
52%
Average goals
2,8
2,7
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
1,8
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,8
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

45% Possession 55%
8 Shots 7
1 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 0
6 Corners 4
2 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Watford 18. · Crystal Palace 13.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 26 20 3 3 +46 63
2 Liverpool 25 17 6 2 +44 57
3 Chelsea 25 14 8 3 +31 50
4 Man United 26 13 7 6 +10 46
5 West Ham 26 12 6 8 +11 42
6 Arsenal 23 13 3 7 +10 42
7 Wolves 24 12 4 8 +5 40
8 Tottenham 23 12 3 8 +0 39
9 Brighton 25 7 12 6 -3 33
10 Southampton 25 7 11 7 -5 32
11 Leicester 23 7 6 10 -6 27
12 Aston Villa 24 8 3 13 -6 27
13 Crystal Palace 25 5 11 9 -4 26
14 Brentford 26 6 6 14 -15 24
15 Leeds 24 5 8 11 -21 23
16 Everton 23 6 4 13 -12 22
17 Newcastle 24 4 10 10 -19 22
18 Watford 24 5 3 16 -19 18
19 Burnley 22 2 11 9 -9 17
20 Norwich 25 4 5 16 -38 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Watford Crystal Palace
15′
J. Mateta 0–1
1–1 M. Sissoko
Kiko Femenía
18′
Samir 🟨
40′
42′
C. Gallagher 1–2
T. Mitchell
44′
🟨 Cheikhou Kouyaté
Half-time 1–2
J. Hernández 🔁
↦ J. King
51′
Kiko Femenía 🟨
62′
E. Kayembe 🔁
↦ T. Cleverley
73′
73′
🔁 J. Ayew
↦ M. Olise
80′
🔁 J. McArthur
↦ W. Hughes
85′
W. Zaha 1–3
J. Ayew
90′
W. Zaha 1–4
J. McArthur
92′
🔁 O. Édouard
↦ J. Mateta
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Watford

4-3-3
1 B. Foster G
15 C. Cathcart D
21 Kiko Femenía D
14 H. Kamara D
22 Samir D
19 M. Sissoko M
8 T. Cleverley M
6 I. Louza M
7 J. King F
25 E. Dennis F
23 I. Sarr F
Bench (9)
29 J. Hernández
39 E. Kayembe
27 C. Kabasele
28 S. Kalu
11 A. Masina
5 W. Troost-Ekong
26 D. Bachmann
2 J. Ngakia
12 K. Sema

Coach: R. Hodgson

Crystal Palace

4-3-3
1 J. Butland G
17 N. Clyne D
16 J. Andersen D
6 M. Guéhi D
3 T. Mitchell D
8 C. Kouyaté M
12 W. Hughes M
23 C. Gallagher M
7 M. Olise F
11 W. Zaha F
14 J. Mateta F
Bench (9)
9 J. Ayew
18 J. McArthur
22 O. Édouard
10 E. Eze
4 L. Milivojević
34 M. Kelly
20 C. Benteke
15 J. Schlupp
19 R. Matthews

Coach: P. Vieira

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,20
U
3,24
B ✓
2,40
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,20
U2,5
1,69
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

A Marriner · 74 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
18,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.