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Premier League

Referee: Stuart Attwell

Man United

S U S S T

2–1

Full-time

Watford

S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 49%

57%

40%

Points per game

1,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

73%

60%

Both score Ø 64%

70%

57%

Average goals

3,3

2,9

Scored

1,9

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

8 Shots 20

5 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 6

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 5

4 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 5. · Watford 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	31	25	2	4	+60	77
2	Liverpool	31	23	7	1	+52	76
3	Tottenham	30	20	1	9	+25	61
4	Arsenal	30	18	6	6	+24	60
5	Man United	30	17	7	6	+18	58
6	Chelsea	30	17	6	7	+17	57
7	Wolves	30	12	8	10	+2	44
8	Watford	30	12	7	11	-2	43
9	West Ham	31	12	6	13	-5	42
10	Leicester	31	12	5	14	-3	41
11	Everton	31	11	7	13	+1	40
12	Bournemouth	31	11	5	15	-13	38
13	Newcastle	31	9	8	14	-9	35
14	Crystal Palace	30	9	6	15	-5	33
15	Brighton	29	9	6	14	-10	33
16	Southampton	30	7	9	14	-16	30
17	Burnley	31	8	6	17	-24	30
18	Cardiff	30	8	4	18	-30	28
19	Fulham	32	4	5	23	-43	17
20	Huddersfield	31	3	5	23	-39	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	15	0	1	+41	45
2	Liverpool	15	13	2	0	+35	41
3	Arsenal	16	13	2	1	+25	41
4	Chelsea	15	9	5	1	+19	32
5	Man United	14	8	5	1	+10	29
6	Tottenham	14	9	1	4	+12	28
7	West Ham	16	8	3	5	+4	27
8	Bournemouth	16	7	5	4	+7	26
9	Everton	16	7	4	5	+2	25
10	Wolves	15	7	3	5	+3	24
11	Watford	14	7	2	5	+0	23
12	Brighton	14	6	4	4	+2	22
13	Newcastle	16	7	1	8	-1	22
14	Leicester	15	6	2	7	+0	20
15	Cardiff	16	6	2	8	-13	20
16	Southampton	15	4	6	5	-3	18
17	Burnley	15	5	2	8	-9	17
18	Fulham	16	4	3	9	-13	15
19	Crystal Palace	15	3	4	8	-6	13
20	Huddersfield	16	2	2	12	-17	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	10	5	1	+17	35
2	Tottenham	16	11	0	5	+13	33
3	Man City	15	10	2	3	+19	32
4	Man United	16	9	2	5	+8	29
5	Chelsea	15	8	1	6	-2	25
6	Leicester	16	6	3	7	-3	21
7	Crystal Palace	15	6	2	7	+1	20
8	Wolves	15	5	5	5	-1	20
9	Watford	16	5	5	6	-2	20
10	Arsenal	14	5	4	5	-1	19
11	Everton	15	4	3	8	-1	15
12	West Ham	15	4	3	8	-9	15
13	Newcastle	15	2	7	6	-8	13
14	Burnley	16	3	4	9	-15	13
15	Southampton	15	3	3	9	-13	12
16	Bournemouth	15	4	0	11	-20	12
17	Brighton	15	3	2	10	-12	11
18	Cardiff	14	2	2	10	-17	8
19	Huddersfield	15	1	3	11	-22	6
20	Fulham	16	0	2	14	-30	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.