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League Cup

Referee: S Barrott

Ipswich

S S T T S

2–4

Full-time

Arsenal

S S S S S

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ipswich Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,0

2,0

Scored

2,2

1,7

Conceded

1,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

42% Possession 58%

8 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Peterborough	3	2	1	0	+5	–	7
2	Bradford	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.7	7
3	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.7	6
4	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
5	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.2	6
6	West Ham	3	2	0	1	+4	–	6
7	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
8	Fulham	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.8	6
9	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
10	Newcastle	2	2	0	0	+2	–	6
11	Lincoln	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
12	Middlesbrough	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
13	Barnsley	3	1	2	0	+1	–	5
14	Reading	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.3	4
15	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
16	Walsall	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
17	Leyton Orient	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.0	4
18	Millwall	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.4	4
19	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+5	+1.5	3
20	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.8	3
21	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
22	Everton	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
23	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
24	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
25	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
26	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
27	Luton	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.7	3
28	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
29	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
30	Crewe	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
31	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
32	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
33	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
34	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
35	Leeds	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.5	3
36	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
37	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
38	Leicester	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
39	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
40	Charlton	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.8	3
41	Stevenage	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.3	3
42	Watford	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
43	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-4	-1.5	3
44	Burnley	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
45	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
46	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
47	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
49	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
50	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
51	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
52	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
53	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
54	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
55	Rochdale	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
56	Doncaster	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
57	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.8	1
58	Preston	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
59	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.2	1
60	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
61	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
62	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
63	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
64	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
65	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
66	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
67	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
68	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
69	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
70	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
71	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
72	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
73	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
74	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
75	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
76	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
77	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
78	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
79	York	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
80	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
81	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
82	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
83	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
84	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
85	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
86	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.7	6
2	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.2	6
3	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
4	Bradford	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.3	4
5	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
6	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.8	3
7	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
8	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
9	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
10	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
11	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.8	3
12	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
13	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
14	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
15	Crewe	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
17	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
18	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
19	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
20	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
21	Leyton Orient	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.0	3
22	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
23	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
24	Watford	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
25	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
26	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Bromley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
31	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
33	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
34	Preston	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
35	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
36	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
37	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
38	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
39	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
42	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
43	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
44	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
45	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
46	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
47	York	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
48	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
49	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
50	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
51	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
52	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
53	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.3	0
54	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
55	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-5	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Peterborough	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
2	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
3	Lincoln	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
4	Reading	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.3	4
5	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
6	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+5	+1.5	3
7	Everton	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
8	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
9	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
10	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
11	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
12	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
13	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
14	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
15	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	Luton	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.7	3
17	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
18	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
19	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
20	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
21	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
22	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
23	Walsall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
24	Leeds	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.5	3
25	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
26	Charlton	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.8	3
27	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
31	Doncaster	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
33	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
34	Leyton Orient	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
35	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
36	Rochdale	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
37	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-4	-0.2	1
38	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
39	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	Barnet	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
42	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
43	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
44	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
45	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
46	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
47	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
48	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
49	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
50	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
51	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
52	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
53	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.