Premier League
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Ipswich
Liverpool
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–2
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Man City
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | +3.1 | 6 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | +2.4 | 6 |
| 3 |
Hull
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | -1.4 | 6 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | +2.4 | 6 |
| 5 |
Brentford
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | +3.5 | 4 |
| 6 |
Newcastle
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | -1.8 | 4 |
| 7 |
Everton
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | -1.2 | 4 |
| 8 |
Leeds
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | -0.4 | 4 |
| 9 |
Brighton
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | +2.0 | 3 |
| 10 |
Man United
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | +3.4 | 3 |
| 11 |
Sunderland
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0 | -0.1 | 3 |
| 12 |
Ipswich
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -1.4 | 3 |
| 13 |
Liverpool
|
2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +0 | +0.9 | 2 |
| 14 |
Nott'm Forest
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | +0.7 | 1 |
| 15 |
Bournemouth
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1.3 | 1 |
| 16 |
Fulham
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| 17 |
Coventry
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | -1.1 | 0 |
| 18 |
Crystal Palace
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | -0.7 | 0 |
| 19 |
Aston Villa
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | -4.2 | 0 |
| 20 |
Tottenham
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | -2.9 | 0 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
K. Scherpen
G
D. O'Shea
D
I. Diop
D
J. Greaves
D
L. Davis
D
S. Lukić
M
E. Palacios
M
A. Fatawu
M
J. Enciso
M
D. Maeda
M
Emersonn
F
Coach: G. O'Neil
Alisson Becker
G
R. Araújo
D
J. Jacquet
D
V. van Dijk
D
M. Kerkez
D
A. Mac Allister
M
D. Szoboszlai
M
C. Gakpo
M
F. Wirtz
M
Víctor Muñoz
M
A. Isak
F
Coach: Andoni Iraola
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Man United
Ipswich
Ipswich
Leicester
Ipswich
Sunderland
Ipswich
QPR
Southampton
Ipswich
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.