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Championship

Referee: J Smith

Oxford

U T T S T

2–6

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Oxford Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,8

3,8

Scored

0,7

2,2

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 37%

27%

47%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

0,58 xG 2,89

36% Possession 64%

11 Shots 16

7 Shots on target 12

0 Blocked shots 0

6 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 9

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Oxford 16. · Middlesbrough 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sheffield United	15	9	4	2	+11	+4.2	31
2	Sunderland	14	9	3	2	+14	+2.0	30
3	Burnley	16	8	6	2	+13	+3.9	30
4	Leeds	15	8	5	2	+15	+16.1	29
5	Watford	16	8	2	6	+1	-2.2	26
6	West Brom	15	6	7	2	+7	+5.6	25
7	Middlesbrough	15	7	3	5	+6	+14.3	24
8	Millwall	15	6	5	4	+5	+8.0	23
9	Blackburn	15	6	4	5	+2	-1.0	22
10	Bristol City	15	5	7	3	+1	+0.3	22
11	Swansea	15	5	4	6	+1	+0.8	19
12	Derby	15	5	4	6	+0	-3.5	19
13	Stoke	15	5	4	6	-1	-6.1	19
14	Sheffield Weds	16	5	4	7	-8	-1.5	19
15	Norwich	15	4	6	5	+1	+1.2	18
16	Oxford	15	4	5	6	-1	-5.6	17
17	Plymouth	16	4	5	7	-11	-16.7	17
18	Coventry	15	4	4	7	-1	+6.0	16
19	Cardiff	16	4	4	8	-9	-6.8	16
20	Hull	15	3	6	6	-4	-1.9	15
21	Preston	15	3	6	6	-8	-3.4	15
22	Luton	15	4	3	8	-9	+0.9	15
23	Portsmouth	15	2	6	7	-12	-7.9	12
24	QPR	15	1	7	7	-13	-6.7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	8	6	1	1	+12	+10.8	19
2	Watford	7	6	1	0	+8	+2.1	19
3	Sheffield United	7	6	1	0	+8	+6.0	19
4	Sunderland	6	5	1	0	+10	+2.5	16
5	Millwall	8	5	1	2	+6	+7.6	16
6	Blackburn	8	5	1	2	+5	+1.6	16
7	Burnley	7	4	3	0	+8	+3.2	15
8	Oxford	8	4	3	1	+5	-2.1	15
9	Plymouth	8	4	3	1	+4	-2.5	15
10	Derby	7	4	2	1	+6	+1.6	14
11	Middlesbrough	8	4	2	2	+3	+8.5	14
12	Stoke	8	3	3	2	+4	-0.4	12
13	Swansea	7	3	3	1	+4	+5.5	12
14	Cardiff	8	4	0	4	+1	-2.2	12
15	Preston	8	3	3	2	+1	+2.4	12
16	Sheffield Weds	9	3	3	3	-1	+3.3	12
17	Luton	8	3	2	3	+0	+3.9	11
18	Norwich	7	2	4	1	+5	+2.1	10
19	Coventry	8	3	1	4	+1	+6.4	10
20	Bristol City	7	2	4	1	+1	-1.1	10
21	West Brom	7	2	4	1	+1	+4.7	10
22	Hull	8	1	4	3	-1	+1.3	7
23	Portsmouth	7	1	3	3	-4	-1.3	6
24	QPR	8	0	4	4	-8	-0.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	8	4	3	1	+6	+1.0	15
2	Burnley	9	4	3	2	+5	+0.7	15
3	Sunderland	8	4	2	2	+4	-0.5	14
4	Sheffield United	8	3	3	2	+3	-1.8	12
5	Bristol City	8	3	3	2	+0	+1.4	12
6	Middlesbrough	7	3	1	3	+3	+5.8	10
7	Leeds	7	2	4	1	+3	+5.3	10
8	Hull	7	2	2	3	-3	-3.2	8
9	Norwich	8	2	2	4	-4	-0.9	8
10	Millwall	7	1	4	2	-1	+0.4	7
11	Swansea	8	2	1	5	-3	-4.7	7
12	Stoke	7	2	1	4	-5	-5.6	7
13	Watford	9	2	1	6	-7	-4.3	7
14	Sheffield Weds	7	2	1	4	-7	-4.9	7
15	Coventry	7	1	3	3	-2	-0.4	6
16	Blackburn	7	1	3	3	-3	-2.6	6
17	QPR	7	1	3	3	-5	-6.2	6
18	Portsmouth	8	1	3	4	-8	-6.6	6
19	Derby	8	1	2	5	-6	-5.1	5
20	Luton	7	1	1	5	-9	-3.0	4
21	Cardiff	8	0	4	4	-10	-4.6	4
22	Preston	7	0	3	4	-9	-5.7	3
23	Oxford	7	0	2	5	-6	-3.5	2
24	Plymouth	8	0	2	6	-15	-14.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.