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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Liverpool

S S S S S

5–1

Full-time

Arsenal

U S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,7

Scored

2,8

2,2

Conceded

0,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,5

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 71%

84%

58%

Points per game

2,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

53%

63%

Both score Ø 58%

37%

79%

Average goals

2,6

3,5

Scored

2,3

2,2

Conceded

0,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,9

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–1

47% Possession 53%

15 Shots 8

10 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 3

2 Offside 5

8 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 1. · Arsenal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	19	16	3	0	+36	51
2	Tottenham	20	15	0	5	+22	45
3	Man City	19	14	2	3	+36	44
4	Chelsea	19	12	4	3	+21	40
5	Arsenal	19	11	5	3	+16	38
6	Man United	19	9	5	5	+6	32
7	Wolves	20	8	5	7	+0	29
8	Leicester	20	8	4	8	+1	28
9	Watford	20	8	4	8	-1	28
10	Everton	20	7	6	7	+1	27
11	West Ham	19	8	3	8	-1	27
12	Bournemouth	19	8	2	9	-6	26
13	Brighton	20	7	4	9	-5	25
14	Crystal Palace	19	5	4	10	-8	19
15	Newcastle	20	4	6	10	-12	18
16	Cardiff	20	5	3	12	-19	18
17	Southampton	19	3	6	10	-15	15
18	Fulham	20	3	5	12	-25	14
19	Burnley	19	3	3	13	-24	12
20	Huddersfield	20	2	4	14	-23	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	9	0	1	+26	27
2	Liverpool	9	8	1	0	+20	25
3	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+11	23
4	Chelsea	10	6	3	1	+11	21
5	Tottenham	9	6	0	3	+9	18
6	Man United	9	5	3	1	+5	18
7	Brighton	10	5	3	2	+4	18
8	Everton	10	5	3	2	+3	18
9	Bournemouth	10	5	2	3	+2	17
10	Watford	11	5	1	5	-2	16
11	Leicester	10	4	2	4	+2	14
12	Wolves	10	4	2	4	-1	14
13	West Ham	10	4	1	5	-2	13
14	Cardiff	10	4	1	5	-7	13
15	Fulham	10	3	3	4	-7	12
16	Crystal Palace	9	2	3	4	-3	9
17	Southampton	9	1	5	3	-4	8
18	Newcastle	10	2	1	7	-8	7
19	Burnley	9	2	1	6	-10	7
20	Huddersfield	10	1	2	7	-10	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	11	9	0	2	+13	27
2	Liverpool	10	8	2	0	+16	26
3	Chelsea	9	6	1	2	+10	19
4	Man City	9	5	2	2	+10	17
5	Arsenal	9	4	3	2	+5	15
6	Wolves	10	4	3	3	+1	15
7	Man United	10	4	2	4	+1	14
8	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+1	14
9	Leicester	10	4	2	4	-1	14
10	Watford	9	3	3	3	+1	12
11	Newcastle	10	2	5	3	-4	11
12	Crystal Palace	10	3	1	6	-5	10
13	Everton	10	2	3	5	-2	9
14	Bournemouth	9	3	0	6	-8	9
15	Brighton	10	2	1	7	-9	7
16	Southampton	10	2	1	7	-11	7
17	Cardiff	10	1	2	7	-12	5
18	Huddersfield	10	1	2	7	-13	5
19	Burnley	10	1	2	7	-14	5
20	Fulham	10	0	2	8	-18	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.