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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Liverpool

T S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Arsenal

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,3

3,0

Scored

2,7

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

4,5

3,0

Scored

3,0

2,5

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

66% Possession 34%

21 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 5. · Arsenal 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Everton	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Crystal Palace	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Leeds	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+2	4
9	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Newcastle	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	West Ham	3	1	0	2	+1	3
12	Brighton	3	1	0	2	+0	3
13	Man City	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Man United	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Southampton	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	Wolves	3	1	0	2	-4	3
17	West Brom	3	0	1	2	-6	1
18	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Sheffield United	3	0	0	3	-4	0
20	Fulham	3	0	0	3	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Everton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+2	3
3	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
10	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-3	1
11	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
13	Man United	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Brighton	2	0	0	2	-3	0
16	Man City	1	0	0	1	-3	0
17	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-3	0
20	Fulham	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Everton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Man United	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Leeds	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Wolves	2	1	0	1	-2	3
16	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.