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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Arsenal

S S S U U

3–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 38%

38%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

38%

63%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

2,4

3,0

Scored

0,9

1,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

54% Possession 46%

22 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 12. · Aston Villa 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	8	6	1	1	+13	19
2	Liverpool	8	5	3	0	+16	18
3	Man City	8	5	2	1	+13	17
4	Brighton	8	4	3	1	+3	15
5	Tottenham	8	5	0	3	-3	15
6	Man United	8	4	2	2	+6	14
7	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+5	14
8	Everton	8	4	2	2	+4	14
9	Brentford	8	3	3	2	+3	12
10	Wolves	8	4	0	4	+0	12
11	Leicester	8	3	2	3	-1	11
12	Arsenal	8	3	2	3	-5	11
13	Aston Villa	8	3	1	4	+0	10
14	Crystal Palace	8	1	5	2	-3	8
15	Southampton	8	1	4	3	-4	7
16	Watford	8	2	1	5	-8	7
17	Leeds	8	1	3	4	-8	6
18	Burnley	8	0	3	5	-8	3
19	Newcastle	8	0	3	5	-9	3
20	Norwich	8	0	2	6	-14	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	4	3	1	0	+12	10
2	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+7	9
3	Everton	4	3	0	1	+5	9
4	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+0	9
5	Liverpool	4	2	2	0	+5	8
6	Man United	4	2	1	1	+6	7
7	Aston Villa	4	2	1	1	+4	7
8	Leicester	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Arsenal	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	Crystal Palace	4	1	3	0	+3	6
12	Southampton	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	West Ham	4	1	1	2	+1	4
14	Brentford	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Leeds	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Watford	4	1	1	2	-6	4
17	Wolves	4	1	0	3	-3	3
18	Burnley	4	0	2	2	-2	2
19	Newcastle	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Norwich	4	0	1	3	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	3	1	0	+11	10
2	Chelsea	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	West Ham	4	3	1	0	+4	10
4	Wolves	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Brentford	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Brighton	4	2	2	0	+2	8
7	Man City	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Man United	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Tottenham	4	2	0	2	-3	6
10	Everton	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Leicester	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Arsenal	4	1	1	2	-6	4
13	Watford	4	1	0	3	-2	3
14	Aston Villa	4	1	0	3	-4	3
15	Southampton	4	0	2	2	-4	2
16	Leeds	4	0	2	2	-5	2
17	Crystal Palace	4	0	2	2	-6	2
18	Burnley	4	0	1	3	-6	1
19	Newcastle	4	0	1	3	-6	1
20	Norwich	4	0	1	3	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.