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Allsvenskan

Referee: Joakim Sars

Malmo FF

U U S T T

3–2

Full-time

Varnamo

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Malmo FF Varnamo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

4,3

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 25%

42%

Points per game

1,6

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

46%

58%

Both score Ø 57%

46%

67%

Average goals

2,4

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

0,9

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,10 xG 0,87

50% Possession 50%

19 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 0

2 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Malmo FF 6. · Varnamo 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	25	18	6	1	+28	+3.1	60
2	Hammarby	25	15	4	6	+24	+16.7	49
3	AIK	24	12	7	5	+8	+7.3	43
4	GAIS	24	11	8	5	+12	+11.0	41
5	Goteborg	24	13	2	9	+4	+0.8	41
6	Malmo FF	24	10	9	5	+15	+13.3	39
7	Djurgarden	24	10	8	6	+9	+6.1	38
8	Elfsborg	25	11	4	10	+2	+0.2	37
9	Brommapojkarna	25	9	2	14	-1	-3.0	29
10	Hacken	25	8	5	12	-9	+3.3	29
11	Norrkoping	25	8	5	12	-10	-9.5	29
12	Halmstad	25	8	4	13	-23	-12.8	28
13	Sirius	24	7	5	12	-3	-1.2	26
14	Oster	24	5	7	12	-13	-11.6	22
15	Degerfors	25	6	4	15	-21	-6.6	22
16	Varnamo	24	2	6	16	-22	-17.1	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hammarby	13	10	1	2	+20	+14.2	31
2	Mjallby	12	8	4	0	+13	+4.6	28
3	AIK	11	7	4	0	+12	+5.5	25
4	GAIS	12	6	3	3	+6	+7.5	21
5	Elfsborg	13	6	3	4	+5	+1.1	21
6	Malmo FF	12	5	4	3	+7	+9.3	19
7	Goteborg	12	6	1	5	+4	+3.3	19
8	Djurgarden	12	4	6	2	+4	+5.5	18
9	Halmstad	13	5	2	6	-10	-5.6	17
10	Norrkoping	13	5	1	7	-5	-1.3	16
11	Sirius	12	4	2	6	+0	+2.0	14
12	Hacken	13	4	2	7	-6	+5.7	14
13	Brommapojkarna	12	4	0	8	-3	-0.4	12
14	Varnamo	13	2	4	7	-9	-7.8	10
15	Oster	11	2	3	6	-6	-3.0	9
16	Degerfors	12	1	3	8	-14	-1.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	13	10	2	1	+15	-1.6	32
2	Goteborg	12	7	1	4	+0	-2.6	22
3	Malmo FF	12	5	5	2	+8	+3.9	20
4	GAIS	12	5	5	2	+6	+3.5	20
5	Djurgarden	12	6	2	4	+5	+0.6	20
6	Hammarby	12	5	3	4	+4	+2.6	18
7	AIK	13	5	3	5	-4	+1.9	18
8	Brommapojkarna	13	5	2	6	+2	-2.6	17
9	Elfsborg	12	5	1	6	-3	-0.9	16
10	Degerfors	13	5	1	7	-7	-5.6	16
11	Hacken	12	4	3	5	-3	-2.4	15
12	Norrkoping	12	3	4	5	-5	-8.3	13
13	Oster	13	3	4	6	-7	-8.6	13
14	Sirius	12	3	3	6	-3	-3.1	12
15	Halmstad	12	3	2	7	-13	-7.2	11
16	Varnamo	11	0	2	9	-13	-9.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.