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Allsvenskan

Referee: A Aganovic

Malmo FF

S S T T U

3–1

Full-time

Varnamo

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Malmo FF Varnamo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 54%

69%

38%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

69%

38%

Both score Ø 38%

38%

Average goals

3,1

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,74 xG 2,05

52% Possession 48%

20 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 6

9 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Malmo FF 3. · Varnamo 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elfsborg	17	12	3	2	+26	+6.0	39
2	Hacken	18	12	2	4	+25	-1.0	38
3	Malmo FF	16	11	2	3	+21	+0.7	35
4	Djurgarden	18	10	3	5	+4	-1.6	33
5	Norrkoping	17	7	4	6	+3	+5.0	25
6	Hammarby	18	7	4	7	-3	+0.7	25
7	Kalmar	17	7	4	6	-3	-0.2	25
8	Halmstad	17	7	4	6	-8	-1.0	25
9	Mjallby	17	6	4	7	-3	-4.4	22
10	Brommapojkarna	17	7	1	9	-6	+1.0	22
11	Varnamo	16	6	1	9	-4	+0.2	19
12	Sirius	16	4	5	7	-5	+0.2	17
13	Degerfors	18	5	2	11	-23	-2.1	17
14	AIK	16	3	5	8	-6	-1.7	14
15	Goteborg	17	2	7	8	-4	-1.9	13
16	Varberg	17	2	5	10	-14	-0.0	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Djurgarden	10	8	1	1	+9	-1.6	25
2	Hacken	9	8	0	1	+20	-0.8	24
3	Malmo FF	8	6	1	1	+15	+0.6	19
4	Hammarby	8	6	1	1	+7	+0.9	19
5	Elfsborg	8	5	2	1	+15	+1.0	17
6	Kalmar	8	5	1	2	+1	+0.1	16
7	Degerfors	10	4	2	4	-2	-0.3	14
8	Halmstad	9	3	3	3	-4	-0.5	12
9	Norrkoping	8	3	2	3	+0	+2.3	11
10	Brommapojkarna	8	3	1	4	-1	+0.2	10
11	Goteborg	9	2	3	4	+4	-0.9	9
12	Mjallby	9	2	3	4	+0	-3.3	9
13	Varnamo	8	3	0	5	-2	+0.2	9
14	Sirius	8	2	1	5	-3	+0.5	7
15	AIK	8	1	4	3	-3	-1.0	7
16	Varberg	8	0	3	5	-12	+0.7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elfsborg	9	7	1	1	+11	+5.0	22
2	Malmo FF	8	5	1	2	+6	+0.1	16
3	Hacken	9	4	2	3	+5	-0.2	14
4	Norrkoping	9	4	2	3	+3	+2.7	14
5	Mjallby	8	4	1	3	-3	-1.2	13
6	Halmstad	8	4	1	3	-4	-0.5	13
7	Brommapojkarna	9	4	0	5	-5	+0.8	12
8	Sirius	8	2	4	2	-2	-0.2	10
9	Varnamo	8	3	1	4	-2	+0.1	10
10	Kalmar	9	2	3	4	-4	-0.3	9
11	Varberg	9	2	2	5	-2	-0.7	8
12	Djurgarden	8	2	2	4	-5	-0.0	8
13	AIK	8	2	1	5	-3	-0.7	7
14	Hammarby	10	1	3	6	-10	-0.2	6
15	Goteborg	8	0	4	4	-8	-1.0	4
16	Degerfors	8	1	0	7	-21	-1.8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.