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Championship

Referee: A Davies

Sunderland

S S S T S

2–0

Full-time

Watford

U S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sunderland Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 39%

56%

22%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

78%

56%

Both score Ø 45%

56%

33%

Average goals

2,9

Scored

2,0

1,4

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,25 xG 0,46

58% Possession 42%

9 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 2

9 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sunderland 4. · Watford 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	10	8	1	1	+10	+5.6	25
2	Leicester	9	8	0	1	+12	+7.3	24
3	Preston	9	6	2	1	+3	-0.4	20
4	Sunderland	9	5	1	3	+10	+4.5	16
5	West Brom	10	4	4	2	+6	-1.6	16
6	Norwich	9	5	1	3	+3	+2.0	16
7	Cardiff	10	5	1	4	+2	+1.5	16
8	Hull	10	4	4	2	+2	-1.1	16
9	Southampton	10	5	1	4	-4	-1.3	16
10	Birmingham	10	4	3	3	+2	+3.8	15
11	Millwall	10	4	2	4	-2	-4.6	14
12	Leeds	9	3	4	2	+4	+4.1	13
13	Bristol City	9	3	3	3	+1	+2.6	12
14	Coventry	9	2	5	2	+3	+2.7	11
15	Plymouth	10	3	2	5	+1	-3.2	11
16	Middlesbrough	10	3	2	5	-5	+4.6	11
17	Stoke	10	3	1	6	-4	+1.7	10
18	Blackburn	9	3	1	5	-7	-0.7	10
19	Huddersfield	10	2	4	4	-7	-4.0	10
20	Swansea	9	2	3	4	+1	-0.3	9
21	Watford	9	2	3	4	+0	+0.7	9
22	QPR	9	2	2	5	-7	-5.9	8
23	Rotherham	9	1	2	6	-11	-10.6	5
24	Sheffield Weds	10	0	2	8	-13	-7.5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	5	4	0	1	+6	+5.1	12
2	Cardiff	5	4	0	1	+5	+3.1	12
3	Norwich	5	4	0	1	+4	+2.5	12
4	Preston	5	4	0	1	+0	-2.1	12
5	Birmingham	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.0	11
6	West Brom	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.1	10
7	Plymouth	5	3	0	2	+6	+0.1	9
8	Leicester	4	3	0	1	+2	+2.2	9
9	Watford	6	2	2	2	+4	+3.9	8
10	Hull	5	1	4	0	+2	+0.9	7
11	Middlesbrough	5	2	1	2	+0	+3.8	7
12	Southampton	5	2	1	2	-1	-0.4	7
13	Sunderland	4	2	0	2	+4	+1.9	6
14	Coventry	4	1	3	0	+3	+2.3	6
15	Leeds	4	1	3	0	+3	+4.1	6
16	Stoke	5	2	0	3	-1	+0.9	6
17	Millwall	5	2	0	3	-3	-2.0	6
18	Blackburn	5	2	0	3	-4	+0.2	6
19	Swansea	4	1	2	1	+2	+0.8	5
20	Bristol City	5	1	2	2	+0	+1.0	5
21	Rotherham	4	1	2	1	+0	-5.1	5
22	Huddersfield	5	1	2	2	-3	-2.2	5
23	QPR	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.2	1
24	Sheffield Weds	5	0	1	4	-6	-2.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	5	5	0	0	+10	+5.1	15
2	Ipswich	5	4	1	0	+4	+0.5	13
3	Sunderland	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.5	10
4	Hull	5	3	0	2	+0	-1.9	9
5	Southampton	5	3	0	2	-3	-0.9	9
6	Preston	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.7	8
7	Millwall	5	2	2	1	+1	-2.5	8
8	Leeds	5	2	1	2	+1	+0.0	7
9	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.6	7
10	QPR	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.7	7
11	West Brom	5	1	3	1	+3	-1.6	6
12	Coventry	5	1	2	2	+0	+0.4	5
13	Huddersfield	5	1	2	2	-4	-1.8	5
14	Norwich	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.5	4
15	Swansea	5	1	1	3	-1	-1.1	4
16	Blackburn	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.9	4
17	Cardiff	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.7	4
18	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.8	4
19	Birmingham	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.8	4
20	Middlesbrough	5	1	1	3	-5	+0.8	4
21	Plymouth	5	0	2	3	-5	-3.3	2
22	Watford	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.2	1
23	Sheffield Weds	5	0	1	4	-7	-5.1	1
24	Rotherham	5	0	0	5	-11	-5.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.