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Championship

Referee: G Ward

Sunderland

U S S U S

2–2

Full-time

Watford

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sunderland Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,7

This season — Championship · 42/44 matches

Win Ø 37%

40%

34%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

55%

39%

Both score Ø 52%

60%

43%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

70% Possession 30%

25 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sunderland 7. · Watford 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	44	27	14	3	+48	95
2	Sheffield United	43	26	7	10	+31	85
3	Luton	41	21	12	8	+18	75
4	Middlesbrough	43	22	8	13	+30	74
5	Millwall	45	19	11	15	+8	68
6	Blackburn	44	19	8	17	-3	65
7	Sunderland	42	17	12	13	+10	63
8	West Brom	44	17	12	15	+6	63
9	Preston	44	17	12	15	-8	63
10	Coventry	42	16	14	12	+9	62
11	Norwich	44	17	11	16	+5	62
12	Swansea	44	17	11	16	+3	62
13	Watford	44	15	14	15	+1	59
14	Bristol City	44	14	14	16	-2	56
15	Hull	44	14	14	16	-10	56
16	Stoke	44	14	11	19	+4	53
17	Birmingham	44	14	11	19	-8	53
18	Cardiff	44	13	10	21	-13	49
19	Reading	44	13	10	21	-20	49
20	QPR	44	12	11	21	-26	47
21	Rotherham	44	10	16	18	-12	46
22	Huddersfield	43	11	11	21	-19	44
23	Wigan	44	10	13	21	-27	43
24	Blackpool	45	10	11	24	-25	41

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	22	15	6	1	+31	51
2	Sheffield United	22	15	3	4	+25	48
3	Middlesbrough	22	13	6	3	+27	45
4	Blackburn	22	13	3	6	+8	42
5	Millwall	22	11	6	5	+13	39
6	Luton	21	10	7	4	+10	37
7	West Brom	22	10	7	5	+10	37
8	Reading	22	10	7	5	+7	37
9	Watford	22	10	6	6	+10	36
10	Bristol City	22	9	7	6	+7	34
11	Swansea	22	10	4	8	+5	34
12	Coventry	20	9	6	5	+3	33
13	Hull	22	9	5	8	-3	32
14	Rotherham	22	8	6	8	+6	30
15	Norwich	22	8	5	9	+1	29
16	Sunderland	21	7	7	7	+0	28
17	Preston	22	7	7	8	-5	28
18	Birmingham	22	7	6	9	+1	27
19	Huddersfield	21	7	6	8	-2	27
20	Cardiff	22	6	7	9	-3	25
21	Blackpool	23	6	6	11	-6	24
22	Stoke	22	6	5	11	-1	23
23	QPR	22	6	5	11	-12	23
24	Wigan	22	5	6	11	-18	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	22	12	8	2	+17	44
2	Luton	20	11	5	4	+8	38
3	Sheffield United	21	11	4	6	+6	37
4	Sunderland	21	10	5	6	+10	35
5	Preston	22	10	5	7	-3	35
6	Norwich	22	9	6	7	+4	33
7	Stoke	22	8	6	8	+5	30
8	Coventry	22	7	8	7	+6	29
9	Middlesbrough	21	9	2	10	+3	29
10	Millwall	23	8	5	10	-5	29
11	Swansea	22	7	7	8	-2	28
12	West Brom	22	7	5	10	-4	26
13	Birmingham	22	7	5	10	-9	26
14	Hull	22	5	9	8	-7	24
15	Cardiff	22	7	3	12	-10	24
16	QPR	22	6	6	10	-14	24
17	Watford	22	5	8	9	-9	23
18	Blackburn	22	6	5	11	-11	23
19	Bristol City	22	5	7	10	-9	22
20	Wigan	22	5	7	10	-9	22
21	Huddersfield	22	4	5	13	-17	17
22	Blackpool	22	4	5	13	-19	17
23	Rotherham	22	2	10	10	-18	16
24	Reading	22	3	3	16	-27	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.