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Premier League

Referee: Roger East

Aston Villa

U T S T T

1–3

Full-time

Everton

U T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Everton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 27/26 matches

Win Ø 21%

11%

31%

Points per game

0,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

41%

58%

Both score Ø 53%

48%

58%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

46% Possession 54%

14 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 20. · Everton 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	27	16	8	3	+20	56
2	Tottenham	27	15	9	3	+28	54
3	Arsenal	27	15	6	6	+17	51
4	Man City	26	14	5	7	+20	47
5	Man United	27	12	8	7	+10	44
6	West Ham	27	11	10	6	+10	43
7	Southampton	27	11	7	9	+9	40
8	Stoke	27	11	6	10	-4	39
9	Liverpool	26	10	8	8	+2	38
10	Watford	27	10	7	10	+1	37
11	Chelsea	27	9	9	9	+3	36
12	Everton	26	8	11	7	+11	35
13	West Brom	27	9	8	10	-7	35
14	Crystal Palace	27	9	5	13	-6	32
15	Bournemouth	27	7	8	12	-14	29
16	Swansea	27	6	9	12	-11	27
17	Norwich	27	6	6	15	-21	24
18	Newcastle	26	6	6	14	-22	24
19	Sunderland	27	6	5	16	-19	23
20	Aston Villa	27	3	7	17	-27	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	9	1	4	+18	28
2	Tottenham	14	8	4	2	+15	28
3	Leicester	13	8	4	1	+9	28
4	Arsenal	13	8	3	2	+10	27
5	Man United	13	7	4	2	+11	25
6	Southampton	14	7	2	5	+9	23
7	West Ham	13	6	5	2	+7	23
8	Chelsea	14	5	5	4	+5	20
9	Stoke	13	6	2	5	+1	20
10	Watford	14	5	4	5	+2	19
11	West Brom	14	5	4	5	-2	19
12	Newcastle	13	4	5	4	+2	17
13	Liverpool	12	4	5	3	-1	17
14	Swansea	14	4	5	5	-5	17
15	Everton	14	4	4	6	+4	16
16	Norwich	13	4	4	5	-2	16
17	Sunderland	13	4	3	6	+1	15
18	Crystal Palace	14	4	2	8	-4	14
19	Bournemouth	13	3	4	6	-6	13
20	Aston Villa	13	2	4	7	-10	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	14	8	4	2	+11	28
2	Tottenham	13	7	5	1	+13	26
3	Arsenal	14	7	3	4	+7	24
4	Liverpool	14	6	3	5	+3	21
5	West Ham	14	5	5	4	+3	20
6	Everton	12	4	7	1	+7	19
7	Man City	12	5	4	3	+2	19
8	Man United	14	5	4	5	-1	19
9	Stoke	14	5	4	5	-5	19
10	Watford	13	5	3	5	-1	18
11	Crystal Palace	13	5	3	5	-2	18
12	Southampton	13	4	5	4	+0	17
13	Chelsea	13	4	4	5	-2	16
14	West Brom	13	4	4	5	-5	16
15	Bournemouth	14	4	4	6	-8	16
16	Swansea	13	2	4	7	-6	10
17	Norwich	14	2	2	10	-19	8
18	Sunderland	14	2	2	10	-20	8
19	Newcastle	13	2	1	10	-24	7
20	Aston Villa	14	1	3	10	-17	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.