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Serie B

Referee: A Zanotti

Mantova

S U T S U

3–0

Full-time

Cesena

T U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mantova Cesena

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 32%

27%

37%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

50%

57%

Both score Ø 62%

57%

67%

Average goals

2,6

2,7

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,68 xG 0,75

48% Possession 52%

20 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mantova 15. · Cesena 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	30	19	7	4	+35	+27.5	64
2	Monza	30	19	6	5	+24	+12.3	63
3	Frosinone	30	16	11	3	+27	+7.5	59
4	Palermo	31	16	10	5	+24	+10.6	58
5	Catanzaro	30	14	10	6	+13	+1.9	52
6	Modena	30	13	8	9	+16	+9.6	47
7	Juve Stabia	31	9	15	7	-2	-0.4	42
8	Cesena	30	11	7	12	-5	+4.4	40
9	Sudtirol	30	8	14	8	+2	-4.0	38
10	Avellino	30	9	9	12	-14	-15.5	36
11	Padova	30	8	10	12	-8	-6.9	34
12	Carrarese	30	7	12	11	-6	-8.5	33
13	Empoli	30	7	11	12	-6	+1.0	32
14	Sampdoria	30	7	10	13	-11	-1.6	31
15	Mantova	30	8	7	15	-14	-0.6	31
16	Virtus Entella	30	7	10	13	-14	-10.4	31
17	Bari	30	7	10	13	-16	-17.0	31
18	Spezia	30	7	8	15	-13	-1.5	29
19	Reggiana	30	7	8	15	-16	-6.5	29
20	Pescara	30	5	11	14	-16	-1.8	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	15	13	0	2	+24	+13.8	39
2	Monza	15	12	2	1	+19	+9.8	38
3	Palermo	16	11	4	1	+21	+8.1	37
4	Catanzaro	15	8	6	1	+10	+2.7	30
5	Frosinone	14	8	4	2	+16	+5.2	28
6	Juve Stabia	15	6	8	1	+7	+3.5	26
7	Modena	16	7	4	5	+10	+1.5	25
8	Virtus Entella	15	6	6	3	+4	-2.8	24
9	Sampdoria	15	6	5	4	+2	+2.3	23
10	Avellino	15	6	4	5	-3	-6.9	22
11	Carrarese	15	5	6	4	+5	+1.6	21
12	Mantova	15	6	3	6	-4	+2.7	21
13	Sudtirol	15	5	5	5	+3	-4.5	20
14	Bari	15	5	5	5	+0	-7.9	20
15	Empoli	16	3	10	3	+4	+5.4	19
16	Cesena	15	5	4	6	-2	+5.1	19
17	Pescara	15	4	5	6	+0	-0.6	17
18	Reggiana	14	4	5	5	-3	-1.9	17
19	Padova	15	3	7	5	-3	-4.8	16
20	Spezia	15	4	4	7	-6	-0.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	16	8	7	1	+11	+2.3	31
2	Venezia	15	6	7	2	+11	+13.7	25
3	Monza	15	7	4	4	+5	+2.5	25
4	Modena	14	6	4	4	+6	+8.1	22
5	Catanzaro	15	6	4	5	+3	-0.8	22
6	Palermo	15	5	6	4	+3	+2.5	21
7	Cesena	15	6	3	6	-3	-0.7	21
8	Sudtirol	15	3	9	3	-1	+0.5	18
9	Padova	15	5	3	7	-5	-2.1	18
10	Juve Stabia	16	3	7	6	-9	-3.9	16
11	Avellino	15	3	5	7	-11	-8.6	14
12	Spezia	15	3	4	8	-7	-1.1	13
13	Empoli	14	4	1	9	-10	-4.5	13
14	Carrarese	15	2	6	7	-11	-10.2	12
15	Reggiana	16	3	3	10	-13	-4.6	12
16	Bari	15	2	5	8	-16	-9.2	11
17	Mantova	15	2	4	9	-10	-3.3	10
18	Pescara	15	1	6	8	-16	-1.1	9
19	Sampdoria	15	1	5	9	-13	-3.9	8
20	Virtus Entella	15	1	4	10	-18	-7.6	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.