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Serie B

Referee: Andrea Calzavara

Cesena

S S T S T

1–0

Full-time

Modena

S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cesena Modena

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

1,3

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 54%

54%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

62%

46%

Both score Ø 58%

69%

46%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,6

Conceded

1,1

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,84 xG 2,01

42% Possession 58%

14 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 7

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cesena 4. · Modena 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monza	13	9	2	2	+11	+4.0	29
2	Modena	13	7	5	1	+13	+2.8	26
3	Frosinone	13	7	4	2	+12	+4.7	25
4	Cesena	13	7	2	4	+5	+1.0	23
5	Venezia	13	6	4	3	+10	+2.2	22
6	Palermo	13	5	5	3	+6	-2.9	20
7	Reggiana	13	4	5	4	+0	+1.1	17
8	Empoli	13	4	5	4	-1	+1.0	17
9	Juve Stabia	12	4	5	3	-1	-0.5	17
10	Carrarese	13	3	7	3	+2	-0.4	16
11	Catanzaro	13	3	7	3	+1	-1.3	16
12	Avellino	13	4	4	5	-9	-0.9	16
13	Virtus Entella	13	3	6	4	-5	-1.5	15
14	Padova	13	3	5	5	-4	-2.6	14
15	Mantova	13	4	2	7	-6	+1.9	14
16	Sudtirol	13	2	7	4	-3	-3.5	13
17	Bari	12	3	4	5	-6	-3.5	13
18	Sampdoria	13	2	4	7	-7	+0.9	10
19	Pescara	13	1	6	6	-10	-2.5	9
20	Spezia	13	1	5	7	-8	+0.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monza	7	6	0	1	+6	+0.5	18
2	Modena	7	5	2	0	+10	+1.6	17
3	Venezia	6	5	0	1	+10	+0.9	15
4	Virtus Entella	7	3	4	0	+4	+1.1	13
5	Palermo	7	3	3	1	+5	-1.2	12
6	Reggiana	6	3	3	0	+5	-0.4	12
7	Frosinone	6	3	2	1	+7	+1.8	11
8	Juve Stabia	5	3	2	0	+4	+0.6	11
9	Empoli	7	2	5	0	+3	+0.6	11
10	Bari	6	3	2	1	+2	-2.8	11
11	Catanzaro	7	2	4	1	+1	–	10
12	Mantova	7	3	1	3	-3	+1.9	10
13	Avellino	6	3	1	2	-3	-0.4	10
14	Carrarese	7	2	3	2	+1	-1.5	9
15	Cesena	5	2	2	1	+3	+1.6	8
16	Sampdoria	7	2	2	3	+0	+1.0	8
17	Pescara	7	1	4	2	+0	-2.5	7
18	Sudtirol	6	2	1	3	+0	-1.8	7
19	Padova	6	1	3	2	-2	-1.3	6
20	Spezia	7	0	3	4	-6	+0.7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cesena	8	5	0	3	+2	-0.5	15
2	Frosinone	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.8	14
3	Monza	6	3	2	1	+5	+3.5	11
4	Modena	6	2	3	1	+3	+1.2	9
5	Palermo	6	2	2	2	+1	-1.7	8
6	Padova	7	2	2	3	-2	-1.3	8
7	Carrarese	6	1	4	1	+1	+1.0	7
8	Venezia	7	1	4	2	+0	+1.3	7
9	Catanzaro	6	1	3	2	+0	-1.3	6
10	Sudtirol	7	0	6	1	-3	-1.6	6
11	Empoli	6	2	0	4	-4	+0.4	6
12	Juve Stabia	7	1	3	3	-5	-1.0	6
13	Avellino	7	1	3	3	-6	-0.6	6
14	Spezia	6	1	2	3	-2	-0.6	5
15	Reggiana	7	1	2	4	-5	+1.5	5
16	Mantova	6	1	1	4	-3	–	4
17	Sampdoria	6	0	2	4	-7	-0.2	2
18	Bari	6	0	2	4	-8	-0.7	2
19	Virtus Entella	6	0	2	4	-9	-2.7	2
20	Pescara	6	0	2	4	-10	–	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.