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Ligue 2
Referee: M Lesage
Bastia
S T T U S
1–1
Full-time
Pau FC
U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Pau FC
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
3,7
3,5
Scored
2,0
1,7
Conceded
1,7
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%
13 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
6 Corners 11
1 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 6
2 Yellow cards 3
1 Red cards 1
The table before the match ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Pau FC 1 1 0 0 +2 3
2 Troyes 1 1 0 0 +1 3
3 Guingamp 1 0 1 0 +0 1
4 Le Mans 1 0 1 0 +0 1
5 Laval 1 0 1 0 +0 1
6 St Etienne 1 0 1 0 +0 1
7 Amiens 1 0 1 0 +0 1
8 Reims 1 0 1 0 +0 1
9 Dunkerque 1 0 1 0 +0 1
10 Clermont 1 0 1 0 +0 1
11 Montpellier 1 0 1 0 +0 1
12 Red Star 1 0 1 0 +0 1
13 Rodez 1 0 1 0 +0 1
14 Nancy 1 0 1 0 +0 1
15 Grenoble 1 0 0 1 -1 0
16 Annecy 1 0 0 1 -2 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

24. Jan -25 Bastia – Pau FC 1–1 22. Oct -24 Pau FC – Bastia 1–1 10. May -24 Pau FC – Bastia 1–2 26. Sep -23 Bastia – Pau FC 1–4 20. May -23 Pau FC – Bastia 2–6

Match report

Bastia Pau FC
17′
🟨 Daylam Meddah
1–0 J. Sebas ⚽
A. Boutrah
27′
34′
🟨 Tom Pouilly
Half-time 1–1
60′
⚽ T. Arconte 1–1
J. Kalulu
Tom Ducrocq 🟥
65′
65′
🟨 Tairyk Arconte
65′
🟥 Daylam Meddah
C. Vincent 🔁
↦ J. Sebas
67′
67′
🔁 S. Beusnard
↦ A. Bobichon
68′
🔁 E. Zuliani
↦ T. Arconte
Florian Bohnert 🟨
73′
79′
🔁 S. Lebouath
↦ G. Versini
84′
🔁 S. Karamoko
↦ P. Mboup
T. Meynadier 🔁
↦ D. Guidi
85′
L. Etoga 🔁
↦ M. Ble
85′
I. Karamoko 🔁
↦ F. Tomi
85′
Zakaria Ariss 🟨
89′
A. Zaouai 🔁
↦ F. Bohnert
92′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Bastia

4-3-3
30 J. Placide G
15 F. Bohnert D
6 D. Guidi D
4 A. Roncaglia D
17 Z. Ariss D
13 T. Ducrocq M
66 J. Janneh M
10 A. Boutrah M
9 F. Tomi F
25 M. Ble
14 J. Sebas F
Bench (7)
1 L. Olmeta
24 T. Meynadier
18 A. Zaouai
5 C. Inao Oulai
29 L. Etoga
7 C. Vincent
8 I. Karamoko

Coach: Michel Moretti

Pau FC

4-1-4-1
22 N. Raveyre G
2 T. Pouilly D
23 A. Briancon D
25 J. Ruiz D
3 J. Kalulu D
97 D. Meddah M
10 G. Versini M
84 R. Touzghar M
14 A. Bobichon M
9 P. Mboup M
7 T. Arconte F
Bench (7)
40 T. Paradowski
19 Kante
4 S. Karamoko
34 S. Lebouath
21 S. Beusnard
87 E. Zuliani
26 N. Glossoa

Coach: Thierry Debes

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,74
🔒
U ✓
3,52
🔒
B
4,41
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
1,96
🔒
U2,5 ✓
1,76
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Lesage · 143 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.