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Ligue 1

Referee: B Dechepy

Toulouse

T T U T U

0–1

Full-time

Marseille

T U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,8

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 44%

33%

54%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

46%

67%

Both score Ø 46%

42%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,4

2,1

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,91 xG 1,13

49% Possession 51%

12 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 12. · Marseille 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	25	18	3	4	+32	+29.3	57
2	Lens	24	17	2	5	+24	+15.9	53
3	Lyon	24	14	3	7	+13	+7.7	45
4	Marseille	24	13	4	7	+18	+10.0	43
5	Monaco	25	12	4	9	+6	+5.9	40
6	Lille	24	12	4	8	+6	+9.4	40
7	Rennes	24	11	7	6	+3	-1.2	40
8	Strasbourg	25	10	6	9	+9	+8.7	36
9	Brest	24	9	6	9	-2	+0.1	33
10	Lorient	24	8	9	7	-4	-1.2	33
11	Angers	25	9	5	11	-7	-15.8	32
12	Toulouse	24	8	7	9	+5	+3.8	31
13	Le Havre	24	6	8	10	-10	-10.1	26
14	Paris FC	24	6	8	10	-12	-12.3	26
15	Nice	24	6	6	12	-14	-10.3	24
16	Auxerre	25	4	7	14	-16	-7.7	19
17	Nantes	25	4	5	16	-20	-12.8	17
18	Metz	24	3	4	17	-31	-19.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	1	1	+24	+16.5	31
2	Lens	12	10	0	2	+15	+12.8	30
3	Marseille	12	8	3	1	+17	+9.1	27
4	Lyon	11	9	0	2	+12	+9.7	27
5	Monaco	13	8	1	4	+8	+8.1	25
6	Rennes	12	7	3	2	+11	+6.6	24
7	Strasbourg	12	7	2	3	+12	+11.9	23
8	Lorient	12	6	5	1	+6	+4.5	23
9	Lille	12	7	2	3	+6	+8.2	23
10	Brest	12	6	3	3	+5	+8.6	21
11	Angers	12	6	2	4	+3	-3.6	20
12	Le Havre	13	5	5	3	+3	+2.3	20
13	Toulouse	12	4	5	3	+4	+5.5	17
14	Nice	12	4	5	3	+0	-0.6	17
15	Paris FC	12	3	4	5	-7	-4.0	13
16	Auxerre	13	3	3	7	-5	+1.2	12
17	Metz	12	2	3	7	-9	-3.1	9
18	Nantes	13	2	2	9	-11	-6.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	8	2	3	+8	+12.8	26
2	Lens	12	7	2	3	+9	+3.2	23
3	Lyon	13	5	3	5	+1	-1.9	18
4	Lille	12	5	2	5	+0	+1.2	17
5	Marseille	12	5	1	6	+1	+0.9	16
6	Rennes	12	4	4	4	-8	-7.8	16
7	Monaco	12	4	3	5	-2	-2.2	15
8	Toulouse	12	4	2	6	+1	-1.7	14
9	Strasbourg	13	3	4	6	-3	-3.2	13
10	Paris FC	12	3	4	5	-5	-8.4	13
11	Brest	12	3	3	6	-7	-8.5	12
12	Angers	13	3	3	7	-10	-12.2	12
13	Lorient	12	2	4	6	-10	-5.7	10
14	Nantes	12	2	3	7	-9	-6.2	9
15	Auxerre	12	1	4	7	-11	-8.9	7
16	Nice	12	2	1	9	-14	-9.7	7
17	Le Havre	11	1	3	7	-13	-12.5	6
18	Metz	12	1	1	10	-22	-16.3	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.