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Super League

Referee: F Polychronis

AEK

U S U S U

1–0

Full-time

Larisa

S T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AEK Larisa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 44%

68%

20%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

36%

40%

Both score Ø 44%

36%

52%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

1,8

0,9

Conceded

0,6

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,91 xG 0,49

61% Possession 39%

20 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

7 Corners 3

13 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AEK 3. · Larisa 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PAOK	25	17	6	2	+35	+7.4	57
2	Olympiakos	25	17	6	2	+32	+6.4	57
3	AEK	25	17	6	2	+29	+5.4	57
4	Panathinaikos	25	13	7	5	+16	+3.5	46
5	Levadeiakos	25	11	8	6	+19	-4.0	41
6	OFI Crete	24	10	1	13	-7	-3.4	31
7	Atromitos	26	7	8	11	-4	-1.1	29
8	Aris Thessalonikis	24	6	11	7	-5	-1.6	29
9	Aris	24	6	11	7	-5	–	29
10	Volos NFC	25	8	4	13	-13	+1.0	28
11	Kifisia	25	5	10	10	-9	-1.7	25
12	Panetolikos	25	7	3	15	-14	-2.3	24
13	Larisa	25	5	9	11	-16	-1.2	24
14	Asteras Tripolis	25	3	8	14	-18	-2.5	17
15	Panserraikos	24	3	4	17	-40	-6.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PAOK	13	11	2	0	+23	+2.8	35
2	Olympiakos	12	10	1	1	+20	+2.2	31
3	AEK	12	10	1	1	+17	+2.3	31
4	Panathinaikos	13	9	3	1	+17	+2.6	30
5	Levadeiakos	12	7	3	2	+19	-2.1	24
6	OFI Crete	13	7	0	6	+9	-1.0	21
7	Volos NFC	12	4	4	4	-4	+1.3	16
8	Aris Thessalonikis	12	2	9	1	+1	+1.7	15
9	Aris	12	2	9	1	+1	–	15
10	Larisa	13	3	5	5	-8	-0.5	14
11	Kifisia	13	3	4	6	-4	-0.7	13
12	Asteras Tripolis	12	2	5	5	-2	+0.1	11
13	Atromitos	13	2	4	7	-5	+0.6	10
14	Panserraikos	12	3	1	8	-16	-5.2	10
15	Panetolikos	12	3	0	9	-10	+0.4	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AEK	13	7	5	1	+12	+3.1	26
2	Olympiakos	13	7	5	1	+12	+4.2	26
3	PAOK	12	6	4	2	+12	+4.6	22
4	Atromitos	13	5	4	4	+1	-1.7	19
5	Levadeiakos	13	4	5	4	+0	-1.9	17
6	Panathinaikos	12	4	4	4	-1	+0.9	16
7	Panetolikos	13	4	3	6	-4	-2.6	15
8	Aris Thessalonikis	12	4	2	6	-6	-3.3	14
9	Aris	12	4	2	6	-6	–	14
10	Kifisia	12	2	6	4	-5	-1.0	12
11	Volos NFC	13	4	0	9	-9	-0.3	12
12	Larisa	12	2	4	6	-8	-0.7	10
13	OFI Crete	11	3	1	7	-16	-2.3	10
14	Asteras Tripolis	13	1	3	9	-16	-2.6	6
15	Panserraikos	12	0	3	9	-24	-0.9	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.