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Championship
Referee: D Webb
Peterborough
T
2–1
Full-time
Derby
T T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Peterborough Derby
Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,0
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 42%
0%
83%
Average goals
3,0
3,3
Scored
0,0
1,2
Conceded
3,0
2,2
Goal diff per game
-3,0
-1,0
This season — Championship · 1/2 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,0
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
3,0
2,5
Scored
0,0
1,0
Conceded
3,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
-3,0
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

43% Possession 57%
13 Shots 7
4 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 5
2 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 13
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Peterborough 25. · Derby 19. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Luton 2 2 0 0 +6 6
2 Hull 1 1 0 0 +3 3
3 Stoke 1 1 0 0 +1 3
4 Coventry 1 1 0 0 +1 3
5 Blackburn 1 1 0 0 +1 3
6 Birmingham 1 1 0 0 +1 3
7 Peterboro 2 1 0 1 -2 3
8 Bournemouth 1 0 1 0 +0 1
9 West Brom 1 0 1 0 +0 1
10 Fulham 1 0 1 0 +0 1
11 Middlesbrough 1 0 1 0 +0 1
12 QPR 1 0 1 0 +0 1
13 Millwall 1 0 1 0 +0 1
14 Cardiff 1 0 1 0 +0 1
15 Barnsley 1 0 1 0 +0 1
16 Bristol City 1 0 1 0 +0 1
17 Blackpool 1 0 1 0 +0 1
18 Huddersfield 1 0 1 0 +0 1
19 Derby 2 0 1 1 -1 1
20 Reading 1 0 0 1 -1 0
21 Nott'm Forest 1 0 0 1 -1 0
22 Swansea 1 0 0 1 -1 0
23 Sheffield United 1 0 0 1 -1 0
24 Preston 1 0 0 1 -3 0
25 Peterborough 1 0 0 1 -3 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Peterborough Derby
Mark Beevers 🟨
25′
Half-time 0–0
52′
🔁 J. Stretton
↦ C. Kazim-Richards
58′
🔁 L. Sibley
↦ F. Ebosele
S. Dembélé 🔁
↦ J. Marriott
62′
Nathan Thompson 🟨
63′
J. Knight 🔁
↦ J. Randall
73′
77′
⚽ J. Stretton 0–1
R. Morrison
Dan Butler 🟨
83′
84′
🔁 K. Jóźwiak
↦ R. Morrison
H. Burrows 🔁
↦ M. Beevers
85′
91′
🟨 Louie Sibley
1–1 H. Burrows ⚽
J. Ward
91′
94′
🟨 Craig Forsyth
Siriki Dembélé 🟨
100′
2–1 S. Dembélé 0 ⚽
100′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Peterborough

3-4-1-2
1 C. Pym G
5 M. Beevers D
4 N. Thompson D
3 D. Butler M
6 F. Kent D
18 O. Norburn M
23 J. Ward M
11 J. Grant M
26 J. Randall F
9 J. Clarke-Harris F
14 J. Marriott F
Bench (7)
10 S. Dembélé
12 J. Knight
16 H. Burrows
15 K. Poku
13 D. Cornell
2 R. Edwards
21 J. Tomlinson

Coach: D. Ferguson

Derby

4-2-3-1
21 K. Roos G
33 C. Davies D
16 R. Stearman D
3 C. Forsyth D
4 G. Shinnie M
10 T. Lawrence M
11 R. Morrison M
2 N. Byrne D
8 M. Bird M
13 C. Kazim-Richards F
36 F. Ebosele M
Bench (7)
34 J. Stretton
17 L. Sibley
7 K. Jóźwiak
32 J. Brown
35 L. Watson
31 R. Allsop
43 D. Williams

Coach: W. Rooney

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Webb · 199 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.