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Primeira Liga
Referee: Jorge de Sousa
Sp Braga
T S S S S
1–0
Full-time
Sp Lisbon
T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Sp Lisbon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,2
3,0
Scored
2,2
2,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,0
This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 53%
47%
58%
Points per game
1,6
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
47%
58%
Both score Ø 55%
47%
63%
Average goals
2,7
2,8
Scored
1,5
1,7
Conceded
1,2
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%
13 Shots 15
8 Shots on target 9
3 Blocked shots 2
8 Goalkeeper saves 6
5 Corners 9
2 Offside 3
15 Free kicks against 14
4 Yellow cards 7
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sp Braga 6. · Sp Lisbon 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 20 19 0 1 +40 57
2 Porto 21 17 2 2 +37 53
3 Sp Lisbon 19 11 2 6 +11 35
4 Famalicao 20 10 5 5 +7 35
5 Rio Ave 20 9 5 6 +5 32
6 Sp Braga 19 9 3 7 +7 30
7 Guimaraes 19 6 8 5 +6 26
8 Setubal 19 6 7 6 -7 25
9 Vitoria Setubal 19 6 7 6 -7 25
10 Tondela 21 6 6 9 -9 24
11 Gil Vicente 20 5 8 7 -5 23
12 Moreirense 20 5 7 8 -1 22
13 Boavista 19 5 7 7 -4 22
14 Santa Clara 19 5 6 8 -8 21
15 Maritimo 20 4 9 7 -9 21
16 Belenenses 20 5 3 12 -20 18
17 Pacos Ferreira 19 4 4 11 -14 16
18 Portimonense 20 2 9 9 -14 15
19 Aves 20 4 0 16 -15 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sp Braga Sp Lisbon
10′
🟨 Sebastián Coates
20′
🟨 Stefan Ristovski
Wenderson Galeno 🟨
45′
45′
🟨 Luís Neto
45′
🟨 Wendel
45′
🟨 Rodrigo Battaglia
Half-time 0–0
51′
🟨 Marcos Acuña
66′
🟨 Luciano Vietto
66′
🔁 L. Vietto
↦ M. Acuña
Trincão 🔁
↦ Nuno Sequeira
67′
Bruno Wilson 🔁
↦ David Carmo
72′
Paulinho 🟨
73′
73′
🔁 Jovane Cabral
↦ Rafael Camacho
1–0 Trincão
76′
Fransergio 🟨
81′
84′
🔁 G. Plata
↦ S. Ristovski
Rui Fonte 🔁
↦ Paulinho
86′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Sp Braga

3-4-2-1
1 Matheus Magalhães G
47 Ricardo Esgaio M
5 Nuno Sequeira M
13 Wallace D
36 Bruno Viana D
92 David Carmo D
27 Fransérgio M
15 André Horta M
20 Paulinho F
21 Ricardo Horta F
90 Galeno F
Bench (7)
77 Trincão
4 Bruno Wilson
18 Rui Fonte
85 Samuel Costa
12 Tiago Sá
7 Wilson Eduardo
11 Diogo Viana

Coach: Micael Sequeira

Sp Lisbon

3-1-4-2
81 Luís Maximiano G
14 Luís Carlos D
4 S. Coates D
13 S. Ristovski M
26 C. Borja D
16 R. Battaglia M
9 M. Acuña M
5 Eduardo Henrique M
37 Wendel M
90 A. Šporar F
7 Rafael Camacho F
Bench (7)
10 L. Vietto
77 Jovane Cabral
20 G. Plata
19 V. Rosier
21 Jesé
99 Diogo Sousa
98 I. Doumbia

Coach: Emanuel Ferro

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,79
U
3,71
B
4,18
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,81
U2,5 ✓
1,97
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Jorge de Sousa · 70 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.